President Obama’s last State of the Union Address has not yet begun, but Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has already upstaged it.
By seizing two U.S. Navy patrol boats and arresting their American crews, the main terrorist organ of Iran’s government has not just committed an act of aggression against this country. It has also provided the most obvious argument against the alleged accomplishment that Obama will boast about in tonight’s speech — his nuclear deal with Iran, which he made despite robust and bipartisan congressional opposition.
This is not the first time Iran has displayed this sort of behavior and timed it for maximum effect. In April, Iran opened fire upon and boarded an American cargo ship, just as the nuclear negotiations were nearing their close. In December, Iranian gunboats fired missiles to within a football field’s distance of an American aircraft carrier.
These incidents seem calculated to tell the world that the ayatollahs knew Obama was desperate for a (legacy enhancing) deal and they would not compromise at all to get what they wanted.
The humiliation they meted out to America before the deal was struck has continued apace since it was signed.
Obama’s administration has reacted by downplaying the latest slap, with one anonymous official even claiming that “there was no indication of hostile intent” — a preposterous statement, given the inherent hostility of seizing another nation’s flagged military vessels.
This new seizure, like the earlier acts of aggression, can be interpreted in one of two ways. It could be that the Iranian regime is a monolith and is determied to rub its diplomatic triumph in Obama’s face. That would be bad. Bear in mind that the Iranian regime has already demonstrated it is not really bound by the agreement, given that the Obama administration refuses to enforce its terms by punishing Iran for two recent missile tests that violate its terms.
But there is another possibility. It is that there are tensions within the Iranian regime and the government does not have complete control over the Revolutionary Guard, which felt free to seize U.S. Navy boats without coordinating the move with higher-ups in Tehran. Under this scenario, those who opposed the agreement are attempting to embarrass not only Obama, but also those in high office who agreed to it.
This possibility might be even worse, because it suggests that Obama has made a deal with an impotent government that is at the mercy of anti-American forces that control its military. In that event, the nuclear deal will not be honored by Iran because those with the real control are not the ones who made the deal.
Either way, we wish Obama’s speechwriters good luck in coming up with an adequate explanation to go into tonight’s speech. They’re going to need it.
