Pollster Scott Rasmussen ‘s most recent numbers in the Republican prirmary for the Florida Senate seat show a 43%-43% tie among likely primary voters between Governor Charlie Crist and former House Speaker Marco Rubio. This represents a huge change from previous Rasmussen polls on this race: Crist led 53%-31% in August and 49%-35% in October.
Rubio’s very favorable ratings have shot up sharply in the intervening four months. Crist is a Republican who has taken un-conservative stands on issues from hurricane insurance to the Democrats’ February stimulus package, which he supported and in behalf of which he made a joint appearance with Barack Obama.
In effect he was one of two notable Republicans who bet that Obama’s initial popularity would be sustained through the year, the other being Arlen Specter. Specter switched to the Democratic party in April when he polls suggested he could not win in a rematch of the 2004 Republican primary with former Congressman Pat Toomey (Specter won 51%-49% then, with the vocal support of George W. Bush and his then-Senate colleague Rick Santorum).
Now Crist, who has enjoyed strong positive job ratings among Democrats and Independents during most of his term, but is rated positively by only a 56%-43% margin among likely Republican primary voters, appears not to be a shoo-in for the Senate seat vacated by Mel Martinez (and held currently by former Crist aide and appointee George LeMieux).
One lesson that some liberals (disapprovingly) and conservatives (approvingly) are drawing from this race is that Republican primary voters are bent on rejecting moderates and nominating conservatives, even at the risk of losing a seat Republicans might otherwise win. But in this case it seems clear that Rubio, even if not as strong a general election candidate as Crist, still has an excellent chance of beating the one prominent Democrat running for the seat, Congressman Kendrick Meek.
I think there are two other lessons that are more apposite here.
One is that voters understand the difference between the jobs of governor and senator. Crist has made his entire career in state politics and has proved to be widely popular on state issues. But transferring this appeal to a Senate race is not automatic, particularly since Crist in his first term as governor and, before his decision to run for the Senate, seemed a shoo-in for reelection.
The second lesson is that money and name identification in today’s political environment don’t guarantee victory. In fact, as Patrick Ruffini points out in the course of arguing persuasively arguing that Republicans shouldn’t be looking for candidates capable of self-funding campaigns.
Rubio is trailing far behind Crist in fundraising, but he has been picking up endorsements from county Republican organizations and, despite his financial disadvantage, getting his articulate conservative message out. I had anticipated that Rubio would not be able to get close to Crist until some time much nearer the September 2010 primary. Instead he seems to have succeeded in making this an even race in just a few months.
