There is no question about it. Less than two full weeks after he announced he was in the race, Texas Gov. Rick Perry has solidly established himself as the frontrunner.
In the month prior to his announcement, Perry trailed former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in the polls by an average of seven points, 21 percent to 14 percent. But since he got into the race August 13th, three polls have been conducted and all three have Perry up by double-digits over Romney.
Gallup‘s poll, taken August 17th through the 21st, has Perry up 12 points over Romney, 29-17 percent. A Rasmussen poll conducted August 15th has Perry up 11 points, 29-18 percent. And a August 18th through the 21st Public Policy Polling poll has Perry up by 13 points, 33-20 percent.
The Gallup poll, released yesterday, is full of more bad news for Romney. Perry beats him in every Republican subgroup except for “East” and “Liberal/Moderate.” Worse, as The New York Times Nate Silver notes, Perry’s numbers have a much better potential for growth. Only two-thirds of Republican voters currently recognize Perry’s name compared to 86 percent for Romney. That means 4 in 10 Republicans who have heard of Perry already have him as their first choice. That is double the fraction for Romney.
There have not been as many post-announcement polls done at the state level, but Perry has rocketed to first place in PPP’s latest Iowa poll. Despite skipping the Ames Straw Poll, Perry tops Romney 22 to 19 percent with Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., in third at 18 percent. According to GOP rules, the first four primary contests are Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Romney better hope his lead in New Hampshire holds or this could end up being a really short race.
Around the Bigs
The Wall Street Journal, SEC Bears Down on Fracking: The Securities and Exchange Commission is inserting itself into the debate over hydraulic fracturing. Government and industry officials tell The Journal that the SEC is asking oil and gas companies to provide detailed information—including chemicals used and efforts to minimize environmental impact—about how they drill for natural gas.
The Wall Street Journal, Loyalist Fighters Dig In as Libya Rebels Set Bounty: Acknowledging that the battle for full control of Libya is far from over, rebels leaders offered a more than $1million bounty for the capture of Moammar Gadhafi.
The Washington Examiner, CBO: Unemployment won’t improve much by Election Day: According to Congressional Budget Office estimates released Wednesday, unemployment will still be around 8.5 percent when voters go to the polls in November 2012.
Associated Press, Survey: Overhaul may push employee benefits shift: Unless Obamacae is repealed, nearly one of every 10 midsized or big employers expects to stop offering health insurance to workers in 2014. The Towers Watson survey also found that another one in five companies are unsure about what they will do after 2014. “If one employer does it, others likely will follow,” Paul Fronstin of the Employee Benefit Research Institute told the AP. “You would see this playing out over the course of years, not months.”
The New York Times, U.S. May Back Refinance Plan for Mortgages: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bond prices fell this week on rumors that the Obama administration is considering letting anyone with a home loan guaranteed by the entities refinance at 4% regardless of credit history or whether the home was worth less than the mortgage.
The Washington Post, Mr. Biden stumbles in China, twice: The Washington Post editorial board hits Vice President Biden for both his apparent support of China’s one-child policy and his claim that criticism of China’s human rights record amounts to an assault on their sovereignty.
The New York Times, U.S. Official Warns About China’s Military Buildup: According to the latest annual report on China’s military, China’s military buildup, including advances in cruise missiles, fighter jets, and aircraft carriers, is “potentially destabilizing” in the Pacific.
Campaign 2012
Obama: Obama’s reelection campaign is soliciting anti-Perry stories from Texans for use in future political ads. A blast email from Hector Nieto, the campaign’s Texas director, tells supporters, “Your feedback will help hold him accountable on the campaign trail, inspire fellow Texans to get involved, and introduce his record — his actual record — to voters across the country.” The Dallas Morning News reports that the email also makes it clear that “submitting a suggestion grants the Obama campaign perpetual rights to use the comments in any form of political advertising.”
Romney: The Examiner‘s Tim Carney takes a closer look at Mitt Romney’s newest campaign adviser, former Minnesota Rep. and powerful K Street lobbyist Vin Weber: “Running in establishment K Street circles gives an operative a different set of priorities (and even principles) than the grass roots hold. Beltway Republicans overwhelmingly favored the 2008 Wall Street bailout, while the base overwhelmingly opposed it. Romney is already too cozy with Wall Street and K Street for some Tea Partiers’ tastes. Can adding Weber steer him astray, politically?”
Righty Playbook:
The Heritage Foundation’s Mike Brownfield notes that Illinois lost the most jobs in the nation following a massive tax increase.
At The Corner, Daniel Foster posts a picture making the rounds on twitter. It shows Perry, aged 22, in his flight gear next to his U.S. Air Force jet, next to Obama, who the picture claims is 22 (but is actually a couple years younger) smoking a cigarette while at Cambridge.
The Weekly Standard‘s Michael Warren flags a new Romney web ad highlighting his support for right to work laws and wonders if this means Romney will compete in South Carolina.
Lefty Playbook:
The Washington Post‘s Dylan Matthews makes the case that the stimulus worked.
Mark Thoma flags a paper claiming that there “no evidence” that government housing policy caused the financial crisis.
The Tax Policy Center defends the Earned Income Tax Credit, Charitable Deduction, and mortgage interest deductions.
