It’s being presented as a massive shift in U.S. policy, but Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s announcement that the United States will no longer view Israeli settlements in the West Bank as “per se” illegal won’t change much.
Note Pompeo’s affirmation that the U.S. is “not addressing or prejudging the ultimate status of the West Bank: that is for Israelis and Palestinians to negotiate.” America, Pompeo added, is “expressing no view on the legal status of any individual settlement.”
Those clarifications matter greatly. That’s because they situate this shift under a legal umbrella, rather than a policy revolution. In short, the U.S. is not saying that Israeli settlements in the West Bank are rightfully Israeli, simply that they are not prima-facie illegal. It’s a critical distinction.
After all, beyond the hyperbole which will now flow from all sides, successive American, Israeli, and Palestinian Authority governments have recognized that a final status two-state solution will involve the formal recognition of some Israeli settlements in the West Bank as part of Israel proper. This is not a controversial point.
What is controversial is which settlements and how much territory Israel will end up receiving under a final status deal and which territory a future Palestinian state will receive. For my two cents, the present Israeli government has excess demands in this regard.
Again, however, Pompeo makes clear that this “ultimate status” is “for Israelis and Palestinians to negotiate.” So while it’s a stretch to say, as U.S. Ambassador to Israel David Friedman told the Jerusalem Post on Monday, that this decision “will bring truth and clarity to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and advances the cause of peace,” it does not alter the parameters of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
Yes, it will spark Palestinian fury. But it does not change the reality of what both sides accept will be the underlining of a future peace deal: reciprocal land swaps.
As Pompeo noted, “This is a complex political problem that can only be solved by negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians.”
Here’s the bottom line: The Trump administration’s upcoming peace plan is likely dead on arrival, but Monday’s decision is not nearly as fundamental as many will claim.
