Players in the political marketplace can be trusted to read the political signals. The surprise retirement announcements of four veteran Democratic congressmen and the decision of Alabama House freshman Parker Griffith to switch to the Republican party are both indications that significant players are hearing signals that confirm the grim news for Democrats in the generic ballot polls, in which the realclearpolitics.com average of recent polls shows Republicans leading Democrats by a historically unusual if not unprecedented 43%-41% margin.
Now from Hotline on Call and Politico we learn that a leading Democratic House race recruit, Jack McDonald in the 31st district of Texas, has decided not to run; the filing deadline is January 4. The 31st district, which runs from metro Houston to metro Austin, was created to be a safe Republican seat, but incumbent Michael McCaul won by only a 54%-43% margin in 2008, in a district John McCain carried by 55%-44%.
Like some other upscale Texas districts (the 32nd in metro Dallas, the 7th in metro Houston), the 31st has trended Democratic in recent years; affluent Texans have been moving leftward, presumably on cultural issues, in the way (although to a much lesser degree, at least up through 2008) that affluent suburbanites in the Northeast, California and metro Chicago and Detroit have.
So McDonald had good reason, looking at the 2008 results, to think that this district was winnable, and he was able to raise more than $930,000. But the 2009 poll numbers evidently told McDonald a different story, and now he’s unwilling to commit a year of his life and perhaps some significant part of his personal net worth to a race that looks much less propitious than it did a few months ago. A rational decision for him, quite possibly, but an unpleasant one for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee which, for good reason, had been talking up this race.
