As readers of these piece already know, I possess neither a sophisticated model of the U.S. economy such as the ones available to the bright sparks whose mis-measurement of risk almost brought down the financial system, nor a crystal ball. All I can offer with any confidence is the observation that the data suggests we will open for business in the new year in better shape than we were at the beginning of 2010.

Investors are counting their gains: the S&P index of 500 stocks has recovered all of the ground lost since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, and then some, with financial stocks leading the way. America’s executives are also smiling rather broadly, although given the angry mood on Main Street, they are doing so only in the privacy of their boardrooms and in the company of peers in the showrooms of luxury retailers, and paying (silent) homage to Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke for keeping interest rates low. Third-quarter pre-tax profits topped their 2006 peak as firms continued the cost cutting that has seen unit labor costs declining at a rate not seen for 50 years – bad news for the labor market. As we return to work on Monday from our New Year’s celebrations, the corporate cash hoard that has resulted from rising profits and a refusal to spend or invest sits there on the sidelines, waiting for some sign that the American consumer is coming off the couch and returning to the shops.