Daily on Energy: Two years in, Trump’s Paris exit hasn’t inspired other countries to follow

The U.S. ratified the deal — which is still in effect — in 2016, and the number of countries that still need to ratify has fallen since.

The most current list posted by the United Nations of countries who have ratified the deal has the U.S. in good company with most of the world. Only a handful of countries, including Iran, Libya, Yemen, and South Sudan, have not taken the final step of ratifying the deal.

Conservative and free-market critics of the Paris deal dismiss the U.S.’ ratification as a farce, because the agreement was never brought before the Senate. Instead, the U.N. allowed the deal to be executed via executive fiat.

Nevertheless, Trump cannot officially leave the Paris agreement until around the time of the 2020 presidential elections per U.N. rules. June 1 marks the two-year anniversary of his announcement that he would exit the deal.

There had been fears on the part of European countries that the U.S. decision to exit Paris would dissuade other countries from enforcing their own emissions cuts. But the numbers tell a different story.

Of the 185 countries who have ratified the deal, about a third of those decided to do so after Trump was sworn into office. There are a total of 10 countries that signed the deal but have not ratified it. At the end of last year, there were 13.

Trump and Orbán have Paris in common: Even Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who is meeting with Trump on Monday, ratified the Paris climate deal in 2016. The Hungarian leader, who shares many of Trump’s views on immigration, was the only member of the European Union to endorse Trump’s campaign for president.

Russia, which counts itself among the 10 countries that have not ratified, has begun making public statements in recent weeks that it plans to do so this year. Russia is one of the largest greenhouse gas-emitting countries left to ratify the deal.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visits Russia later this week. Russian officials began making public statements in April that they will pursue ratification, which is a foreign policy topic that the country might want to bring up with Pompeo. However, more pressing issues are likely to crowd it out, including North Korea nuclear disarmament, Syria, Iran, and the results of the Mueller investigation.

The State Department says he will discuss a “full range of bilateral and multilateral challenges.”

Russia says it plans to complete all necessary work for ratification by the end of 2019.

OPEC member Iran, another big emitter that has not ratified, has not said whether it will shore up its position on the climate change deal any time soon. Its main concern is U.S. sanctions making it difficult for it to export its number one commodity — oil.

Most of the countries that have not ratified the deal have either significant issues of government instability, like South Sudan, Yemen, and Libya, or have major beefs with the United States.

Turkey, which also has not ratified the deal, says it will defy Trump’s sanctions and continue to import Iranian oil.

Iraq has also not ratified the Paris deal. Iraq, which is still counted as a U.S. ally in the region, will continue to import Iranian natural gas under a U.S. waiver that expires soon after the fasting month of Ramadan.

Welcome to Daily on Energy, written by Washington Examiner Energy and Environment Writers John Siciliano (@JohnDSiciliano) and Josh Siegel (@SiegelScribe). Email [email protected] for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email, and we’ll add you to our list.

US OPPOSES PALESTINIAN BID TO JOIN MONTREAL PROTOCOL: On Friday, the U.S. joined with Israel in opposing the latest attempt by the “Palestinian State” to join the Montreal Protocol, a major U.N. environmental agreement that the U.S. has been a part of since the 1980s.

The protocol was endorsed by President Ronald Reagan to phase out a chemical found in aerosols that had been eroding the planet’s protective ozone layer.

The U.S. is blocking the Palestinian territories from joining because the region, while under Israeli control, has not yet established statehood.

CHINA PLANS TO RAISE TARIFFS ON US GOODS, INCLUDING LNG: China retaliated against the Trump administration’s escalated trade war on Monday, with the country’s finance ministry announcing plans to raise tariffs on a range of U.S. goods to 20% or 25% from 10%. The list of targeted goods includes U.S. liquefied natural gas, which will be hit by a 25% tariff. The strengthened tariffs do not include American crude oil.

China is delaying the implementation of the heightened tariffs until June 1, to provide time for negotiators. But industry officials have warned that Trump’s trade war with China is threatening to discourage the world’s fastest growing LNG market from signing long-term contracts with American developers.

Whereas oil is fungible, buyers of LNG demand long-term contracts, in the 20-year range. Other countries, including Russia, Qatar, Canada, and Mozambique can offer LNG at competitive rates, despite the U.S.’ cheap prices. China’s demand for LNG is soaring, and it is relying more on the U.S., which is expected to soon be a top three global exporter of LNG.

SAUDI ARABIA SAYS TWO OIL TANKERS SABOTAGED OFF UAE COAST: Two oil tankers belonging to Saudi Arabia were damaged in sabotage attacks Sunday near the United Arab Emirates.

It’s not clear if the attacks were linked to the growing tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

The attacks coincided with the U.S. deploying an aircraft carrier, bombers, and an anti-missile battery to the Persian Gulf to deter violence from Iran against American troops stationed in the Middle East as the U.S. increases sanctions.

The Trump administration has stopped Iran’s biggest customers from buying its oil, ending temporary waivers.

The two tankers sustained “significant damage,” Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih said, according to news reports. Falih said one of the tankers was on its way to pick up Saudi oil that would be brought to the U.S. There were no casualties or oil spilled in the attacks.

A spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry called any suggestion that the country was behind the attacks a “conspiracy.”

HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL REOPENS TRAFFIC AFTER OIL TANKER COLLISION: The Houston Ship Channel reopened to limited ship and barge traffic on Sunday, after a tugboat moving two vessels collided with an oil tanker.

About 9,000 barrels of reformate — an oil-refining byproduct used to make gasoline — spilled into the channel, according to CNN.

The collision Friday caused one of the two barges to capsize. There were no injuries. But the barges were carrying 25,000 tons of reformate. Cleanup efforts are continuing. State officials said they have conducted 2,700 water samples of the channel, which have not succeeded dangerous action levels so far.

The Houston Ship Channel is a conduit to the Gulf of Mexico and to foreign markets for energy products.

BERNIE SANDERS TO JOIN AOC AT GREEN NEW DEAL RALLY IN DC: Sen. Bernie Sanders will join Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., at a rally Monday night sponsored by a group of young activists in D.C. to promote a Green New Deal.

Sanders, I-Vt., a 2020 presidential candidate, will headline the Sunrise Movement’s final stop of its “Green New Deal Tour” at Howard University, the group announced Saturday.

The Sunrise Movement is a group of young climate change activists that has helped shape the Green New Deal proposal to quickly eliminate the use of fossil fuels and achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions.

The group said it will announce the “next phase” of its “Green New Deal campaign,” designed to pressure 2020 presidential candidates to have aggressive agendas to fight climate change.

DEMOCRATIC RIVALS ATTACK JOE BIDEN OVER CLIMATE CHANGE: Fellow 2020 Democratic presidential candidates, including Sanders, attacked former Vice President Joe Biden on Friday for being insufficiently devoted to combating climate change after a news report said Biden prefers a “middle ground” policy.

Sanders, who has been ranking second behind Biden in early polls, tweeted that “there is no ‘middle ground’ when it comes to climate policy.”

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, running a single-issue campaign to combat climate change, also piled on.

“The times and science have changed,” Inslee said, contrasting the urgency to what Biden faced during the Obama administration. “We cannot simply go back to the past; we need a bold climate plan for our future.”

Biden defended himself Friday, tweeting: “I’m proud to have been one of the first to introduce climate change legislation. What I fought for in 1986 is more important than ever — climate change is an existential threat. Now. Today.”

DEMOCRATS REVOKE INVITE TO REPUBLICAN TO TESTIFY ON CARBON TAX: Former Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo of Florida was disinvited Friday from testifying about carbon pricing at this week’s House Ways and Means Committee hearing focused on climate change, after House Democratic leadership intervened.

Curbelo said that Chairman Rep. Richard Neal of Massachusetts told him he was disinvited for “reasons beyond the chairman’s control.”

“It’s a shame because I thought for a couple days that Democrats might actually be interested in making bipartisan progress on climate policy,” Curbelo told Josh.

Mystery solved: Josh later learned that House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., pressured Neal to rescind the invitation to Curbelo, deeming it “inappropriate” for the committee’s Democrats to give a platform to a Republican.

Last year, before losing his seat in Congress, Curbelo was the first Republican in nearly a decade to introduce national carbon pricing legislation.

AUTOMAKER DAIMLER PLEDGES TO MAKE CARS CARBON-NEUTRAL BY 2039: German automaker Daimler pledged Monday to make all its cars carbon-neutral by 2039, in what climate advocates say is the fastest timeline proposed by an automaker for such a goal.

Carbon neutrality, or net-zero emissions, is when the amount of carbon emitted is offset by the removal of the greenhouse gas.

Daimler, which owns Mercedes-Benz, said it aims to have electric models make up more than half of its total car sales by 2030, including EVs and plug-in hybrids.

The Rundown

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Bloomberg Offshore wind will need much bigger boats

Calendar

TUESDAY | May 14

10 a.m., 366 Dirksen. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee holds hearing on mineral security legislation, including the Rare Earth Element Advanced Coal Technologies Act; and the American Mineral Security Act.

2:30 p.m., 366 Dirksen. The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee’s panel on forest management holds a hearing to consider eight pieces of legislation, including one to ban oil and gas drilling in national forests.

WEDNESDAY | May 15

10 a.m., 1100 Longworth. House Ways and Means Committee holds its first climate change hearing.

THURSDAY | May 16

10 a.m., 366 Dirksen. The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee holds a hearing on the Department of Energy’s carbon capture, utilization, and storage programs and to receive testimony on the Enhancing Fossil Fuel Energy Carbon Technology Act of 2019.