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COAL IN QUESTION THIS WEEKEND: G-7 energy and environment ministers will convene this weekend to chart a common course on climate. Will they be able to put a firmer target on a phaseout of coal?
Members still have their differences to work out on natural gas, a source of energy whose strategic value rose exponentially over the last year in light of the war in Ukraine. Leaders in the Biden administration and European Commission have recognized its centrality to a transition to a less carbon-intensive energy sector, even if the larger G-7 is still working out how intensively to support new investments in gas.
Even on coal, though, a fuel nearly universally condemned but one which proved to be an indispensable source of security during last year’s energy crisis, members are still struggling to plant the flag in unison.
German negotiators working on ministers’ draft communique have floated language on phasing out unabated coal-fired generation “ideally by 2030” or “in the 2030s,” Bloomberg reported yesterday.
The Japanese have supported reintroducing 2022’s commitment to “achieving a fully or predominantly decarbonized power sector by 2035.”
That 2035 timeline, and a pledge to “[prioritize] concrete and timely steps” in the direction of an “eventual phase-out” of unabated coal generation, were as concrete as things got on coal generation last year.
Welcome to Daily on Energy, written by Washington Examiner Energy and Environment Writers Jeremy Beaman (@jeremywbeaman) and Breanne Deppisch (@breanne_dep). Email [email protected] or [email protected] for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email, and we’ll add you to our list.
EIA RAISES OIL PRICE FORECAST FOLLOWING OPEC CUT NEWS: The Energy Information Administration raised its oil price forecasts for 2023 following OPEC+’s production cut agreement.
EIA’s newest short-term energy outlook, released this morning, forecasts Brent to average around $86 per barrel for the rest of the year, a 2.5% increase from last month’s forecast. WTI is expected to average $81, an upward adjustment of 4.7%.
The higher averages would still be a major improvement over last year’s prices, when Brent averaged $101 per barrel.
Despite the production cut, EIA’s analysis said global oil markets should be expected to remain in “relative balance” for the year.
WHAT MAKES DRIVERS WARY OF SWITCHING TO ELECTRIC VEHICLES: As the Biden administration seeks to deliver on its ambitious goal of ensuring 50% of new cars are EVs by 2030––a target it is expected to increase this week––many U.S. drivers remain reluctant to make the switch, citing logistical hurdles related to reliability, so-called “range anxiety,” and a lack of access to charging infrastructure as major factors weighing against buying EVs.
Major concerns over charging: Personal and public EV chargers can break down and require repair. For personal chargers, the fixes can be complicated and time-consuming. Reporting an outage at a public charging station can be difficult — as can accessing up-to-date information about where to find reliable chargers. This lack of infrastructure is a major deterrent for drivers in rural areas, with fewer public chargers, or drivers living in urban areas, where off-street parking is scarce.
Geographic constraints are another limiting factor: A total of 30% of all public charging infrastructure in the U.S. is located in California. And out of the more than 3,100 counties in the U.S., 63% of counties had five or fewer public chargers, while 39% had none. Wyoming, for its part, has refused to accept any federal funds for public charging infrastructure.
“Range anxiety” is also pervasive, especially in rural areas: Drivers are often surprised to find that cold weather significantly slows charging speeds, and that their EVs can rapidly lose range in freezing conditions. Locating a charger can also be difficult due to the lack of infrastructure, especially in colder climates––as well as the fact that all EVs cannot use the same chargers.
A 2022 user experience study for EV drivers conducted by JD Power echoed these frustrations, finding 1 out of every 5 respondents was unable to charge their EVs due to a malfunctioning or out-of-service charging station. Read more from Breanne here.
…That’s consistent with a new poll published today from the University of Chicago Energy Policy Center and the AP-NORC Center: The survey found that 41% of U.S. drivers would be at least somewhat likely to buy an EV as their next car, but that higher sticker prices and lack of charging availability remain among the chief concerns about making the switch.
An 80% majority of U.S. drivers also said a lack of charging options remained a barrier to purchasing an EV — a concern pollsters found was equal among respondents in cities, suburbs, and rural areas.
“Not only is the availability of public charging still an obstacle, but EV owners continue to be faced with charging station equipment that is inoperable,” Brent Gruber, the director of global automotive at JD Power, said in a statement after the study was published.
GERMANY TO PHASE OUT ITS LAST THREE NUCLEAR REACTORS FOR GOOD: Germany is following through on its phase-out of its last three nuclear reactors later this week, betting it can make do without the supply even amid ongoing energy security concerns caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The three reactors currently make up some 6% of Germany’s energy mix, or roughly 4,055 MW of capacity. All will be shut down on April 15, under the timeline proposed last fall by Germany’s governing coalition.
The three remaining nuclear plants had been slated for closure at the end of 2022, but German Chancellor Olaf Scholz opted to extend their lifespan through mid-April amid the energy crisis, which left Berlin especially vulnerable. (Prior to the war, Germany was the largest importer of Russian energy supplies.)
There has also been a shift in public support for nuclear power: An August 2022 poll conducted by national broadcaster ARD found that more than 80% of German residents were in favor of extending the country’s nuclear reactors. Among those polled, many said they viewed nuclear power as a preferable alternative to falling back on coal-fired plans for energy production.
NEW CRITICAL MINERALS EXPORT RESTRICTIONS THREATEN CLEAN ENERGY: China is leading a post-2010 rise in export restrictions on critical minerals, according to a new report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)–– a trend that it says threatens to restrict availability of rare earth materials and could hinder governments’ efforts to reach climate change fighting targets.
According to the report, more than 13,000 export restrictions had been introduced by the end of 2020––or a roughly fivefold increase over the past decade. (Since 2020, OECD said, even more restrictions have been introduced.)
India, Argentina, Russia, Vietnam, and Kazakhstan were the other leaders in new restrictions. All those countries are also among the world’s top suppliers of critical minerals––threatening global availability for lithium, cobalt, and other key rare earth materials needed for EV production and clean energy projects.
The report found that the restrictions––which most often came in the form of export taxes––now affect roughly a 10th of the global value of critical raw mineral exports.
PRO-WIND BILLS HEADED TO MARYLAND GOVERNOR’S DESK: Maryland lawmakers gave final approval to two bills on the final day of their 2023 legislative session yesterday that are designed to expand offshore wind in the state, which is gunning to be net-zero by 2045.
One of the bills would establish a target of 8.5 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity by 2031, a goal Gov. Wes Moore announced last month, and seeks to align state laws and regulations with language in the bipartisan infrastructure law and Inflation Reduction Act that dictates the award of federal subsidies for clean energy and transmission projects. It would add labor and domestic content conditions to the Public Service Commission’s approval of wind projects.
The other bill would establish a 3-gigawatt energy storage target to be reached by 2033.
Long way to go: US Wind is currently developing Maryland’s lone offshore wind project in the Outer Continental Shelf. The Baltimore-based company holds leasing rights to develop wind resources in 80,000 acres of the OCS and is planning the first phase of development off the coast of Ocean City, Maryland, and southern Delaware.
With “MarWin,” as the project is known, US Wind proposes to construct a maximum of 22 turbines more than 20 miles from shore with a projected generating capacity of 300 megawatts. BOEM is evaluating US Wind’s construction and operations plan for the project.
Overall, the leasing area US Wind manages could be used to generate about 1.8 gigawatts of wind energy, according to the company.
Some wind proponents have asked the Interior Department to lease for wind more expansively in the Central Atlantic or else risk falling short of its offshore wind goals. Interior and BOEM in November announced the designation of eight draft wind energy areas covering 1.7 million acres off the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, North Carolina, and Virginia.
BOEM plans to hold a lease sale in the region later this year, according to its offshore wind roadmap.
BUSINESS PARTNERS SENTENCED IN MASSIVE RFS FRAUD SCHEME: Five people were sentenced yesterday after being found guilty in a scheme to illegitimately generate Renewable Identification Numbers and fraudulently claim more than $1 billion in refundable renewable fuel tax credits, $511 million of which were paid out by the IRS.
The eight-year scheme centered around the operations of Washakie Renewable Energy, a Utah biodiesel company owned by brothers Jacob and Isaiah Kingston who, along with three other conspirators, were found to have exported biodiesel to foreign countries and reimported it using false transport documents disguising the biodiesel as “feedstock.”
The company subsequently claimed it produced biodiesel from the feedstock to support its filing of fraudulent claims for RINs and renewable fuel tax credits, according to court documents.
Proceeds from the scheme were laundered and used to purchase a yacht and luxury vehicles.
The five conspirators’ scheme is one of the largest ever, according to the Justice Department, and their sentences range from six to 40 years.
The Rundown
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