It seems like ancient history now, but the Republican presidential race was supposed to be a contest between conservatives and the party establishment. That’s how competitive GOP primaries frequently go. And that’s how it appeared 2016 would go as well.

The expectation was that we would see two primaries within a primary, with Jeb Bush and Chris Christie potentially vying for establishment support while Scott Walker, Ted Cruz and Rand Paul were among the competitors in the conservative primary.