RUSSIA NOT LETTING UP: Amid fierce fighting and heavy shelling, Russia is claiming to have “conquered” the largely flattened salt mine town of Soledar in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, which, if true, would mark its first battlefield success in months and improve its chances of encircling the nearby city of Bakhmut, the latest symbol of Ukraine’s tenacious resistance.
Ukraine denies Russia’s claim of control of Soledar, and at the Pentagon, spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said the United States is “keeping a close eye” on the battle.
“We definitely continue to see very intense fighting near Bakhmut and in the vicinity of Soledar. You know, as you’ve seen, it’s been a lot of back and forth, particularly around the Soledar area,” said Ryder at yesterday’s briefing. “Russia has been very clear that it intends to continue to try to take and hold Ukrainian territory, as evidenced by their invasion. So we have no reason to believe that they’re going to let up on the throttle when it comes to operations.”
KREMLIN SAYS ‘NATO AND THE US ARE INDIRECTLY INVOLVED’ IN UKRAINE WAR
HEAVY CASUALTIES, AMMUNITION SHORTAGE: Social media posts in the past week have shown battlefields in the Donbas littered with Russian corpses and Russian soldiers complaining of a lack of equipment and ammunition.
By one estimate, there has been a 75% drop-off in artillery fire in some areas as Russian forces struggle to get resupplied and are increasingly relying on 40-year-old artillery shells, which often fail to detonate.
“It’s the HIMARS, the high mobility rocket systems. So, we’re striking deep. We’re going 90 kilometers into their lines, hitting every single supply depot,” Dan Rice, an American adviser to the Ukrainian military, told CNN last night. “So, they cannot put supply close to the front lines.”
“They’re having to beg, borrow, and steal from the axis of evil, North Korea and Iran, to try to get 122 mm and 152 mm Russian-made shells,” he said. “They’re going to run out at some point. They’re running out of cruise missiles. They’re running out of a lot of things.”
Rice said Russia is paying a heavy price, with fatal casualties in the Donbas going from 100 to 200 a day to as high as 600 to 800, and even more wounded. “It’s a meat grinder, and it’s foolish for Russian communities to go after targets like this, with this much casualties. They don’t care about their dead.”
Rice credited the high kill rate to Ukraine’s use of cluster munitions supplied by Turkey, reported by Foreign Policy, and Russia’s use of conscripts to send human waves against Ukrainian defenders. “Getting into the war, they used armor out front, followed by infantry. Our Javelins were killing their armor, so they put the infantry out front,” said Rice. “Now the infantry soldiers are being mowed down by the U.S.-designed, artillery-fired cluster bombs. “Turkey’s providing this artillery shell. I think that’s a great thing. I think all NATO countries should follow suit.”
PATRIOT TRAINING WILL TAKE MONTHS: The big announcement yesterday from the Pentagon is that 90 to 100 Ukrainian soldiers will get a crash course on operating and maintaining the sophisticated Patriot missile system at the Army’s premier training facility at Fort Sill, Oklahoma, beginning next week.
The training, which typically takes a year, will be crammed into a few months, so the Patriot batteries supplied by the U.S. and Germany can be deployed by spring.
“We’re not winging it in terms of the training. This will be an established curriculum to train these soldiers,“ said Ryder. “It will consist of training in the classrooms, it will consist of training on the Patriot systems, and then of course in a simulation lab, as well, before they actually deploy the capability on the battlefield.”
US TO START TRAINING UKRAINIANS ON PATRIOT MISSILE SYSTEM IN OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEK
TANKS, FIGHTER JETS TO BE DISCUSSED NEXT WEEK: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley head to Germany next week for another meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base.
Among the topics to be discussed with the 50 countries in the group is Ukraine’s desire for main battle tanks and modern fighter jets to take its counteroffensive to the next level.
“We continue to have a very robust dialogue with the Ukrainians when it comes to their security assistance needs. They have an air force, and they’ve been employing that air force to great effect,” said Ryder. “So when it comes to the kinds of capabilities that we provide them, we’ll continue to have that conversation with them, with our international allies and our partners, and we’ll take a variety of considerations into account.”
In a Mitchell Institute webinar, recently retired top NATO commander Gen. Tod Wolters said he favors providing Ukraine with fighter jets eventually. “When it’s time, we have to be prepared to make those contributions with combat aircraft. And it is … my belief, based off capabilities that exist in the environment, that we’re still challenged, from a timing perspective, to make this move.”
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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken host their Japanese counterparts for the 2023 U.S.-Japan Security Consultative Committee meeting at the State Department.
The so-called 2+2 meeting comes ahead of Friday’s summit meeting between President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and after Japan’s adoption of a historic new security strategy, which calls for Japan to increase defense spending from 1% to 2% of GDP over five years and boost its defense budget by 25% to $51 billion, which would give Japan a formidable offensive military capability it has not had since World War II.
Under the plan, Japan will convert two ships into small aircraft carriers and outfit them with F-35s purchased from the U.S., as well as acquire U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles with the range to strike China.
“We support Japan’s decision to acquire new capabilities that strengthen regional deterrence, including counterstrike capabilities,” said Austin after the new strategy was announced on Dec. 16. “We also endorse Japan’s decision to increase substantially its defense spending and reach 2% of GDP in 2027.”
“Our shared security requires new forms of cooperation, and we applaud Prime Minister Kishida for taking action to address the range of national security challenges the Indo-Pacific faces — particularly from the People’s Republic of China,” said Reps. Mike Rogers (R-AL) and Adam Smith (D-WA), the leaders of the House Armed Services Committee, in a statement last month.
At 5 p.m., Austin and Blinken will take part in a joint news conference with Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi and Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada. Livestream at https://www.state.gov and https://www.defense.gov
JAPAN TO RAMP UP DEFENSE CAPABILITIES OVER NEXT FIVE YEARS AS THREATS GATHER
HAPPENING TOMORROW: Hamada will visit the Pentagon for a bilateral meeting with Austin. “The secretary and the department leadership look forward to these important discussions, and we’ll of course have more information to share after all of these meetings,” said Ryder.
AIN’T GONNA HAPPEN: Republicans keep insisting that the defense budget is not going to take a $75 billion hit because of a closed-door promise by new House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) to cap overall spending next year to last year’s levels.
“We haven’t talked about reducing defense spending. We’ve talked about bringing accountability to government,” said Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) yesterday. “A government has needed accountability for a long time. And we’ve seen none of that over the last two years.”
While Democrats are warning a “secret addendum” to the House rules approved this week would mandate a $130 billion cut to all discretionary spending, including a $70 billion cut to the Pentagon, Republicans say that’s nonsense.
“There’s no addendum,” said House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN), who Monday on Fox and Friends blasted the Democrats for accusing Republicans of seeking to defund the military. “I’m here to tell you guys, Republicans will not impact defense spending. Aside from the efficiencies and waste, it’s the domestic spending that we’re going to go after.”
On CNN, Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-SD) who chairs the centrist-leaning Main Street Caucus, said the so-called secret addendum was really simply a pledge by McCarthy to make a good faith effort to advance the priorities of his members.
“This is nothing new. And Nancy Pelosi, two years ago, had a very narrow majority. Obviously, to get the votes she needed, she was willing to have conversations with her members. … That’s what Kevin McCarthy has done,” Johnson said. “Remember, nothing outside of the rules package binds anybody. Kevin McCarthy doesn’t have my vote. McCarthy doesn’t have anybody else’s vote card. This addendum is just really him trying to tell members that he’ll try to do what he can to build unity.”
HOUSE GOP DIVIDED OVER POSSIBLE CUTS TO DEFENSE BUDGET
END OF AN ERROR? For two years now, Republicans have complained bitterly about the effects a strict COVID-19 vaccination mandate has had on the military, leading to the expulsion of thousands of troops who refused the vaccine, at a time when all the services are in a recruiting crisis.
Yesterday, forced by a provision of the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act passed last month, the Pentagon rescinded the 2019 mandate with an order from Austin.
“No individuals currently serving in the Armed Forces shall be separated solely on the basis of their refusal to receive the COVID-19 vaccination if they sought an accommodation on religious, administrative, or medical grounds,” Austin’s memo stated while encouraging all personnel to get vaccinated. “The Military Departments will update the records of such individuals to remove any adverse actions solely associated with denials of such requests, including letters of reprimand.”
But the order provided no apology or reinstatement of the thousands of troops members administratively discharged for “failure to obey a lawful order.”
“The Department is precluded by law from awarding any characterization less than a general (under honorable conditions) discharge,” the memo stated, but it noted former service members may petition for a correction to their personnel records, including the characterization of their discharge.
PENTAGON RESCINDS COVID-19 VACCINATION MANDATE
NEW IRAN STRATEGY: With the Biden administration now conceding its two-year effort to revive the Joint Comprehensive of Action, better known as the Iran nuclear deal, has failed, the question is, what next?
Into the void steps the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, whose Iran research team members put their heads together and produced a massive document, “Strategy for a New Comprehensive U.S. Policy on Iran,” which the nonpartisan research institute plans to brief to Congress.
Edited by FDD CEO Mark Dubowitz and senior fellow Orde Kittrie, the strategy document outlines 231 “specific and actionable recommendations” that various U.S. government departments can employ to confront the nuclear threat from Iran and stop the regime’s regional aggression and assistance to Russia while supporting the Iranian people.
The broad categories of recommendations include strategies to threaten to halt Iran’s nuclear program, militarily if necessary, minimize Russian and Chinese support for Iran, as well as Iranian support for Russia, support the Iranian protesters, and decrease the regime’s financial and material capacity to advance its nuclear program, oppress its people, and support terrorism.
BIDEN SAYS IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL IS ‘DEAD’
TURNER REQUESTS FORMAL REVIEW: Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH), the top Republican of the House Intelligence Committee has fired off a letter to Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines requesting an immediate review and damage assessment following reports that then Vice President Joe Biden removed, and then retained, highly classified information at an undisclosed and unsecure nongovernment office in Washington, D.C., for a period of at least six years.
“It has been reported that a portion of the materials at issue were marked ‘sensitive compartmented information,’ indicating the highest classification and most sensitive intelligence information in our government,” wrote Turner. “This discovery of classified information would put President Biden in potential violation of laws protecting national security, including the Espionage Act and Presidential Records Act. Those entrusted with access to classified information have a duty and an obligation to protect it. This issue demands a full and thorough review.”
TOP INTEL REPUBLICAN DEMANDS DAMAGE ASSESSMENT OVER BIDEN CLASSIFIED DOCUMENTS DISCOVERY
ROGERS TAKES HELM AT HASC: As expected with the new Republican majority Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL) has taken over as chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, and Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA), the former chairman, becomes ranking member.
“I am deeply honored to be the first Congressman from the state of Alabama to serve as Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee,” tweeted Rogers. “Our nation faces unprecedented threats, and I am ready to work to ensure our armed forces remain the greatest force in the world.”
Rogers received some unwelcome notoriety last week when he was caught on a C-SPAN camera in an angry confrontation with Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) after the 14th failed ballot for McCarthy.
“@RepMattGaetz and I have a long and productive working relationship, that I am sure will continue. I regret that I briefly lost my temper on the House Floor Friday evening and appreciate Matt’s kind understanding,” Rogers said in a tweet.
Gaetz also tweeted that all is forgiven for Rogers’s “animated moment.”
“@RepMikeRogersAL and I have a six-year productive, working relationship. We’re going to work together wonderfully going forward,” he said.
NEW HOUSE ARMED SERVICES GOP CHAIRMAN PLEDGES TO FIGHT ‘MISGUIDED’ DOD POLICIES
INDUSTRY WATCH: Allied Market Research has published a new forecast predicting growth in the global digital battlefield industry from $38 billion in 2021 to $156.8 billion by 2031.
“Increase in adoption of 5G network for high-speed data collection, rapid developments in robotics technologies, big data analytics and artificial intelligence, and strong budget for military and defense drive the growth of the global digital battlefield market,” the company said in a news release. “[A] rise in need for digital battlefield devices in defense and introduction of new generation missile & air defense systems are likely to create potential opportunities for growth of the global market in the coming years.”
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: US to start training Ukrainians on Patriot missile system in Oklahoma next week
Washington Examiner: Kremlin says ‘NATO and the US are indirectly involved’ in Ukraine war
Washington Examiner: House GOP divided over possible cuts to defense budget
Washington Examiner: Top Intel Republican demands damage assessment over Biden classified documents discovery
Washington Examiner: John Lausch: The Trump-era US attorney handling the Biden classified docs saga
Washington Examiner: Biden classified document controversy: What we know and how the president’s case differs from Trump’s
Washington Examiner: New House Armed Services GOP chairman pledges to fight ‘misguided’ DOD policies
Washington Examiner: House votes to create select committees on China and ‘weaponization’ of DOJ
Washington Examiner: House Republican files articles of impeachment against DHS Secretary Mayorkas
Washington Examiner: Brazil riot sparks competition to befriend Lula, ‘a grand prize in international politics’
Washington Examiner: Pentagon rescinds COVID-19 vaccination mandate
Washington Examiner: Mexican president thanks Biden for not building ‘1 meter’ of border wall
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Why space should be declared critical infrastructure
Washington Post: U.S., Japan To Announce Move Aimed At Deterring Beijing
Reuters: U.S. To Increase Number Of Anti-Ship Missiles In Japan – Sources
Yonhap: S. Korea, U.S. To Hold ‘Table-Top’ Exercise Against N. Korea’s Possible Nuke Use: Ministry
New York Times: Prompted By Russian Aggression, The E.U. And NATO Vow New Cooperation.
New York Times: Once The War Ends, How Will Ukraine Protect Itself?
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Wolters: Ukraine Needs Fighters, But There’s Still No Consensus Yet to Provide Them
19fortyfive.com: Putin Might Be Facing an Ammunition Crisis in Ukraine
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Russian Missiles Used Against Ukraine ‘Absolutely Filled’ With US Tech
Defense News: Russia’s Upgraded Tu-160 Bomber to Undergo Government Testing
Air & Space Forces Magazine: F-35 Flies for the First Time with Tech Refresh 3, Paving the Way for Block 4
Breaking Defense: Virgin’s Space Launch Failure Costs US, UK Militaries 4 Satellites
USNI News: CNO Gilday to Shipbuilders: ‘Pick Up the Pace’
Breaking Defense: HASC Members Push Back At Sen. Reed AUKUS Criticisms: ‘Far From A Zero-Sum Game’
USNI News: SWO Boss Sets Goal For 75 Mission-Capable Surface Warships Ready To Deploy
Defense One: As a Groundbreaking Unmanned Task Force Hits Stride, Navy Mulls the Next One
Defense News: Building a Better Bomber: How the Stealthy B-21 Subverted Bureaucracy
Marine Corps Times: To Recruit Gen Z, The Top Marine Makes An Appeal To Older Generations
Military.com: Applications to Air Force Academy Bounce Back After Plummeting During Pandemic
Colorado Springs Gazette: Air Force Academy Cadet, Football Player Collapses, Dies on Way to Class
19fortyfive.com: Putin Might Be Facing an Ammunition Crisis in Ukraine
19fortyfive.com: B-21 Raider Stealth Bomber: Could Cost Be a Problem?
19fortyfive.com: he F-15EX Eagle II Might Be the World’s Deadliest Fighter
Washington Post: Opinion: Don’t Cut Aid To Ukraine, Mr. Speaker
The Cipher Brief: The Danger of Losing Focus on Ukraine
The Cipher Brief: The Pentagon’s Cyber Personnel Issues Need More Attention
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 11
7:30 a.m. 2799 Richmond Hwy., Arlington, Virginia — Surface Navy Association annual National Symposium with the theme “Sharpening Our Competitive Edge,” with Coast Guard Commandant Linda Fagan; Vice Chief of Naval Operations Lisa Franchetti; Rep. Joe Courtney (D-CT) and Rep. Robert Wittman (R-VA) delivering remarks on the “View from Capitol Hill” and Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro giving keynote address at 11 a.m. https://www.navysnaevents.org/national-symposium
8 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “The Case for Ukraine Retaking Crimea,” with retired Army Gen. Wes Clark, former NATO supreme allied commander Europe; Leonid Gozman, Russian opposition politician and commentator; Debra Cagan, energy fellow at the Transatlantic Leadership Network; former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk, fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/the-case-for-retaking-crimea
9:30 a.m. — Stimson Center event: “Voices from Japan: Japan’s Security Policy Transformation,” with Itsunori Onodera, the 12th, 17th, and 18th minister of defense of Japan https://www.stimson.org/event/voices-from-japan
9:45 a.m. — Intelligence and National Security Alliance virtual discussion on “ONI’s assessments of foreign naval capabilities and its application of naval intelligence to global geopolitical challenges,” with Rear Adm. Michael Studeman, commander, Office of Naval Intelligence, and Suzanne Wilson Heckenberg, INSA president https://www.insaonline.org/detail-pages/event
4 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology conversation: “Reflections on U.S. defense policy from Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA),” with Michael O’Hanlon, Philip H. Knight chair in defense and strategy, senior fellow and director, Strobe Talbott Center; and Melanie Sisson, fellow, Strobe Talbott Center https://www.brookings.edu/events/reflections
5 p.m. 2201 C St. NW — Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, and Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada joint media availability following a meeting of the U.S.-Japan Security Consultative Committee http://www.state.gov
THURSDAY | JANUARY 12
7:30 a.m. 2799 Richmond Hwy., Arlington, Virginia — Surface Navy Association annual National Symposium, with the theme “Sharpening Our Competitive Edge,” with Joint Chiefs of Staff Vice Chairman Christopher Grady delivering remarks at 7 p.m. https://www.navysnaevents.org/national-symposium
8 a.m. 7920 Jones Branch Dr., McLean, Virginia — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Northern Virginia Chapter 2023 NOVA Army IT Day forum, with Army Undersecretary Gabriel Camarillo; Lt. Gen. John Morrison, deputy chief of staff of the Army for command, control, communications, cyber operations, and networks; Dovarius Peoples, chief information officer of the Army Corps of Engineers; Kenneth McNeill, chief information officer for command, control, communications, and computers/cyber, J-6, of the Army National Guard Bureau; Lt. Gen. Maria Gervais, deputy commanding general and chief of staff of the Army Training and Doctrine Command; Margaret Boatner, deputy assistant Army secretary for strategy and acquisition reform; Kimberly Buehler, director of the Army Office of Small Business Programs; Megan Dake, deputy assistant Army secretary for procurement; William Nelson, deputy assistant Army secretary for research and technology; and Maj. Gen. Christopher Eubank, commanding general of the Army Network Enterprise Technology Command https://afceanova.swoogo.com/ArmyITDay2023
6 p.m. — Economic Club of Washington, D.C., virtual discussion with U.K. Ambassador to the United States Karen Pierce https://www.economicclub.org/events/he-dame-karen-pierce
FRIDAY | JANUARY 13
TBA — President Joe Biden hosts Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida for meetings at the White House https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room
12 p.m. 37th and O Sts. NW — Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service discussion: on “Displacement and Disabilities in Ukraine What’s Happened to Children with Disabilities in the Conflict?” with Eric Rosenthal, founder and executive director of Disability Rights International; Elizabeth Ferris, director of ISIM; and Quill Kukla, director of Georgetown’s Disability Studies Program https://www.georgetown.edu/event/displacement-and-disabilities
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“There will be no Third World War. It is not a trilogy: Ukraine will stop the Russian aggression on our land.”/quote>
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in a prerecorded video message to Golden Globes awards ceremony, introduced by actor Sean Penn Tuesday night
