Support for the proposed Keystone XL pipeline appears to be increasing among liberals who live near the project’s expected route, according to a new analysis of Pew Research Center surveys in 2013 and 2014.
Researchers Timothy Gravelle of the University of Essex and Erick Lachapelle of the University of Montreal used a “geocode” tool to identify survey respondents and measure the distance of their zip codes from the projected pipeline route.
“Proximity to the pipeline leads to a greater likelihood of favoring the pipeline,” Gravelle and Lachapelle said, describing the result as an “inverse NIMBY effect,” according to the Washington Post.
“The result suggests that anti-pipeline advocates may be losing the framing war to those who endlessly cite the pipeline’s alleged economic benefits,” the Post’s Chris Mooney said.
Nationally, public opinion has been all but fixed for several years, with conservatives and Republicans joined by small numbers of Democrats in support for the proposed pipeline that would bring millions of barrels of oil gleaned from Canadian tar sands south to refineries on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico in the U.S.
Environmentalists have spent hundreds of millions of dollars seeking to generate public opposition to the project, claiming it will adversely affect local environments and risk massive oil spills due to maintenance problems or terrorist attacks.
Advocates of the project argue that pipelines are far safer and environmentally responsible than freight trains, which are the main alternative for moving petroleum to refineries. Advocates also point to multiple econometric studies that project the creation of thousands of jobs, mostly in the construction industry as the pipeline is built.
President Obama has delayed approving construction of the northern half of the project for six years. The State Department has concluded the project does not threaten the environment.
Canadian energy industry and government officials have said their country’s vast tar sands resources would be shipped to other customers, mainly in China and elsewhere in Asia, if the Keystone pipeline is not completed.
The researchers suggested that a possible explanation for the greater support for the project among people living closer to it is that local media have emphasized potential economic benefits more than the risk of environmental damage.
“The promise of local jobs and other economic benefits work against environmental considerations of local spills and global risks related to climate change,” the researchers said. The attraction of such benefits seems to affect opponents nearly as much as supporters, with a result that more liberals than expected are expressing positive attitudes about Keystone.
Mark Tapscott is executive editor of the Washington Examiner.
