Democrats are expecting a whopping rebuke Tuesday from voters who are poised to back Republicans in historic numbers despite their palpable disdain for both parties.
With most of the final polling data calculated, political analysts agree that, barring a Democratic miracle, the GOP will take back control of the House just four short years after losing it to Democrats.
In the Senate, Republicans will pick up as many as eight or nine seats, though few predict they’ll get the 10 seats they need to take over that chamber.
Republicans also are expected to dominate the nation’s 37 governors races, adding as many as eight GOP governors to the 24 already in office, many analysts predict.
Overall, Tuesday will be a very good day for the GOP, though the party shouldn’t be jumping for joy, analysts said.
“I would call it a Democratic loss more than a Republican sweep,” pollster Scott Rasmussen said.
A recent Rasmussen poll showed that 65 percent of likely voters want to throw out every member of Congress, Republicans included, and start over.
“Voters are voting against the party in power, but there is no evidence people have better feelings about Republicans than they did two years ago,” Rasmussen said. “They are just more unhappy with the Democrats.”
Rasmussen expects House Republicans to pick up about 55 seats, or 16 more than they need to take control of the chamber. That’s just over the 54 seats the GOP won during its 1994 landslide victory, which was led by Newt Gingrich and featured the party’s “Contract with America.”
The Rothenberg Political Report is predicting Republicans will pick up between 55 and 65 seats in the House. The nonpartisan report’s political editor, Nathan Gonzales, said the number of Democratic losses could go even higher because so many Democratic candidates have been unable to stay above 50 percent in pre-election polls, a dark omen for incumbents.
“I think we are going to see some Republicans win districts where they are less popular than the Democrat they defeat,” Gonzales said. “But it’s because people are just more upset with Washington than their own specific member. They are upset with the direction of the country and that has superseded other concerns.”
In the Senate, Democrats are expected to retain control of the 100-member chamber, though they’ll lose some of the 59 seats they now occupy. The size of Democrats’ Senate majority will hinge on about seven races that most analysts have rated as toss ups, including those in West Virginia, California and Washington.
“The Democrats need to count on Washington and California to keep their majority in the Senate,” Rasmussen said. Both seats are occupied by veteran Democrats, Barbara Boxer in California and Patty Murray in Washington, who are facing their toughest re-election bids ever.
Whatever damage the Democrats endure Tuesday, it was largely their own fault, Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway said. Democrats failed to deliver a winning campaign message, allowing voters to gravitate toward the GOP, she said.
“I think Democrats totally missed that and totally misunderstood the electorate,” Conway said.
