Incumbent Democrats who failed to get behind President Obama’s health care plan are now fending off attacks from both GOP challengers and their own party.
“What they’ve done is to alienate and discourage a significant amount of their base,” said Norm Ornstein, a congressional scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. “In the end this was a big vote and it’s going to last with people.”
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In the House, 34 Democratic members voted against the president’s bill — five had already voted for the bill in November, leaving them vulnerable to attacks from both parties.
Democratic Reps. Michael Arcuri of New York, Marion Berry of Arkansas, Dan Lipinski of Illinois, Stephen Lynch of Massachusetts and Zack Space of Ohio all face primary challenges. Although Berry is retiring and Lipinski already survived the Illinois primary, the other three have tough sells in upcoming primaries.
“There will be some additional Democratic primaries based on health care, but the filing deadlines have passed in some places,” said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “And the fact that health care passed takes the wind out of the sails of many liberal challengers.”
Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln’s challenger, Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, has been hammering the incumbent for her health care vote, demanding she tour the state with him debating her decision.
“Whether or not they succeed in unseating incumbents or not, we’re going to see a lot of challengers doing what Halter is doing to Blanche Lincoln,” Ornstein said.
Colorado Democratic Senate challenger Andrew Romanoff is also using the bill to get a leg up on an incumbent. Romanoff’s campaign against Sen. Michael Bennet centers on the lack of a government insurance program in the Senate version of the president’s plan. Bennet voted for the bill, but Romanoff claims he could have pushed harder against the insurance industry.
“Romanoff may use that, and it is a close primary, but so far Bennet is ahead and has the support and money to win the nomination,” Sabato said.
Ornstein also said unions are likely to play a role in some midterms. Arcuri and fellow New York Rep. Mike McMahon are under attack from the influential Working Families Party of America. Ohio Rep. Space is fending off claims of betrayal by the Service Employees International Union for his vote against the bill.
Sabato said candidates credited with health care successes are likely to get a boost in November.
“Because the bill’s implementation is so drawn out, with most of the painful provisions not kicking in until 2013 to 2018, Republican candidates will have to use every tool, from the Web to TV, to remind voters what is coming,” Sabato said.
Ornstein expressed doubts about the direct effects of the bill on voter sympathies. “Other issues are going to intervene in the next few months,” he said. “It really depends on the economy.”
