BILOXI, Miss. — Mississippi and Alabama, conservative Southern enclaves holding Republican presidential primaries Tuesday, have evolved into tight, three-way races that could further muddy an already convoluted nominating contest.
But the closeness of the race reflects voters’ general apathy toward the remaining Republican White House contenders and not an inability to choose among equally popular candidates, according to analysts and voters here.
Most expect that Mitt Romney, a Harvard-educated, wealthy businessman from New England, will struggle to convert skeptical voters in the heart of the Deep South despite his front-runner status.
But on the eve of the vote, neither Newt Gingrich, a former House speaker from nearby Georgia, nor Rick Santorum, whose faith-and-family message is particularly resonant with Southern evangelicals, had secured a clear majority in either state as they fight to become the sole conservative alternative to Romney.
“Gingrich claims to be from Georgia but doesn’t always appear to be,” said Marty Wiseman, director of the John C. Stennis Institute of Government at Mississippi State University. “[Romney] is the best example of why Mississippians aren’t identifying with these candidates. Anybody can eat cheesy grits. And the type of voter Santorum appeals to, I doubt he has the ability to turn them out on Tuesday.”
In recent days, Romney, Gingrich and Santorum have crisscrossed Mississippi and Alabama brandishing their conservative and Southern credentials. Romney proclaimed a newfound love of Southern cuisine — catfish and grits — to widespread skepticism, while both Santorum and Gingrich spent part of Sunday sitting in Mississippi church pews.
But voters — many of whom still lament the exit from the race of Texas Gov. Rick Perry, an evangelical, hunting enthusiast with a distinct Southern drawl — say it’s the character of the candidates themselves that’s tamping down their enthusiasm.
“I just can’t vote for a Mormon. If that makes me a bigot, so be it,” admitted William Hardy, a mechanic from Hattiesburg, Miss., who won’t back Romney but remains torn between Gingrich and Santorum. “How many wives has Newt had? How long were both he and Santorum in Washington? Are these our only choices?”
Romney’s Mormon faith hasn’t been an overt handicap so far in the race, but Gingrich’s three marriages and reputation for extramarital affairs has put off some voters. Santorum, a former senator, had been scoring well among evangelical voters until his rivals began targeting his time as an “insider” in the House and Senate.
The inability of conservatives to coalesce behind either Gingrich or Santorum has helped keep Romney competitive in the South, terrain so unfavorable to the former Massachusetts governor that Romney himself referred to the Southern primaries as an “away game.”
Mississippi, in particular, could showcase the rift between establishment figures who back Romney and Tea Party voters clamoring for someone more conservative. Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant recently endorsed Romney, but that appeared to do little to boost enthusiasm for the New Englander.
Given their choices, many voters are looking right past the primary to the fall campaign.
“These guys should just thank their lucky stars that Barack Obama is on the other side,” said Meg Finch, a child-care worker from Biloxi. “I’m probably not voting on Tuesday, but believe me, I’ll be back when Obama’s name is on the ballot.”
