Sandwiched between Iowa and South Carolina is a Republican 2016 primary in New Hampshire that could be decided by independent voters.
Granite State presidential primaries are open to unaffiliated voters. With former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton expected to skate to the Democratic nomination, independents, the largest bloc of voters in New Hampshire, could be attracted to the the prospect of playing kingmaker in what is expected to be a crowded and highly competitive Republican contest.
Republican contenders so far have focused on connecting with conservative activists and establishing their bona fides on issues of concern to the base. That approach should carry them far in Iowa and South Carolina, hosts of the first and third nominating contests, respectively. In both states, conservatives are influential and the ballot is reserved for registered Republicans.
But at some point over the next several months, Republican White House hopefuls are going to have to consider New Hampshire independents.
“Those independents are going to play an outsize role,” said Stephen Duprey, a Republican operative in New Hampshire and member of the Republican National Committee.
Performance in the Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary, and South Carolina’s first southern primary, usually whittle down the field of candidates and determine the eventual nominee. Even in years when other states moved up their primaries with the goal of exerting more influence over nominee selection, those first three contests thinned the herd and established a frontrunner.
In 2016, that process could offer a group of voters in New Hampshire who are not registered Republicans an opportunity to shape the course of the campaign that will decide Clinton’s opponent.
That doesn’t mean that a bunch of liberals are going to pick the winner in New Hampshire and send a moderate to South Carolina with fresh momentum. Granite State independents tend to identify as fiscal conservatives and social moderates. They include many national security conservatives, which could matter a great deal in a campaign that could hinge partly on foreign policy. Indeed, many are sympathetic to Republican candidates.
However, many others have strong libertarian leanings. In the 2012 GOP primary, voters in the Live Free or Die state sided with Ron Paul and propelled him to second place. Eventual nominee Mitt Romney won the primary with 39 percent.
“Paul received 24 percent in the primary that Mitt won,” said a veteran New Hampshire GOP insider. “I’m convinced in part because there was no action on the other side, those voters went to him. If it had been a more traditional ‘base’ primary, I expect his natural vote would have been more around 15 percent.”
While support from independents didn’t put Paul over the top three years ago, New Hampshire Republicans say they almost certainly did that for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in 2000. In that primary, McCain won an upset victory over then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush, defeating him by 19 points. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky is expected to be on the ballot and could get strength from the independents who backed his father in 2012.
In interviews Wednesday, a half-dozen Republican operatives based in New Hampshire agreed that GOP presidential candidates will have no choice but to reach out to independents. They’re going to have to tailor their messages and campaigns to appeal beyond the party base. Campaigns also need to account for same-day registration as they attempt to track the makeup of the primary electorate.
None of the state’s GOP insiders necessarily recommended running to the middle.
In New Hampshire, authenticity remains an important quality for voters. But relying on Republican Party dinners and other GOP-only events to reach voters simply isn’t going to cut it.
Depending solely on the kind of red meat rhetoric that fuels applause at a Tea Party rally is another no-no. What GOP insiders urge instead is to focus on the fiscal and foreign policy matters that can unite New Hampshire Republicans and independents, while going light on divisive social issues that might appeal to the former but annoy the latter.
“Independents don’t want to hear about litmus test issues, as much as fiscal sanity — and, to a large degree in this race, foreign policy,” said veteran GOP operative Tom Rath, one of Romney’s New Hampshire advisors in the 2012 primary.
