Ask an expert
With only eight days until the election, experts still disagree as to what the outcome will be. Although most polls show Barack Obama leading, political scientist James Campbell from SUNY Buffalo believes John McCain will be our next president. Speaking on a panel at the National Press Club Monday, he said that, historically, the leader in the polls following labor day has won 13 of 15 presidential elections, and McCain was up in early September.
Not so fast, said Alan Abramowitz of Emory University. Abramowitz said Campbell “took the poll at the only time” McCain happened to be ahead, following his “convention bump.”
Michael Lewis-Beck from University of Iowa agreed, but warned of something he calls “The Bermuda Triangle of Danger”: “Anytime a nominee gets 50-51 percent of the popular vote, they lose the electoral vote,” he explained.
Although they may disagree when it comes to predictions, all stated that the financial crisis was this year’s “October Surprise” — but in September.
