With the Nov. 2 election less than two weeks away, it appears all but certain that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will not be able to hold on to her leadership post, even if Democrats preserve their majority in the House.
Pelosi’s only hope of retaining power when the new Congress convenes in January would be a Democratic sweep of the midterm elections, a highly unlikely scenario, according to both Republican and Democratic strategists.
In the past several days, more than a dozen House Democrats have either suggested they may not support Pelosi for speaker or declared their outright opposition to reappointing her, according to news reports and campaign advertisements.
Since the speaker is elected by a majority vote in the House, Pelosi would have a tough time rounding up enough support even if Democrats maintain a narrow majority.
“If the Democrats hold the majority, it will be by just a couple of seats,” said Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the Rothenberg Political Report.
Pelosi faced only token opposition in the past, but this year, as Republicans batter Democratic candidates across the country by tying them to the unpopular Pelosi, opposition is much more substantial. A Pelosi aide said she still plans to run for speaker in January.
Democrats from districts with large numbers of Republican voters have been desperately trying to distance themselves from the California Democrat’s liberal agenda, and at least three are promising they will not pick her again as speaker, with many more House Democrats declining to back her publicly.
Rep. Mike McIntyre, a Democrat in a tough re-election race in North Carolina, predicted Tuesday that if Pelosi runs for speaker again another Democrat will run against her.
“I look forward to supporting that opposition,” McIntyre said. “I’m confident we are going to have that alternative.”
If a second Democrat joined the speaker’s race and split the party’s vote with Pelosi, House Minority Leader John Boehner, the likely Republican candidate for speaker, would win.
Most political analysts say they believe Pelosi would never allow a three-way race to occur. More likely, they said, Pelosi would quit so Democrats could coalesce around another candidate, such as Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md. Hoyer is considered more centrist than Pelosi and is generally popular within the Democratic caucus.
It wouldn’t be the first time a speaker resigned after midterm losses. In 1998, after Republicans shed five seats and barely held on to their majority, Speaker Newt Gingrich stepped aside, accepting the blame for the GOP’s poor showing.
Former Rep. Martin Frost, a Texas Democrat who ran the House Democratic campaign arm that year, said Pelosi’s prospects are better than Gingrich’s were. Frost says she can hold on to her leadership spot, perhaps by negotiating plum committee assignments or legislation with wavering caucus members.
“Democrats as a group are much less inclined throw their leaders over the side as Republicans are,” Frost added.
Ron Bonjean, a Republican strategist who served as a top aide to former House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., said Pelosi will have to reassess support after the election.
“Should she choose to run, she could win,” Bojean said, “but it would be very tough to pull off, depending on the competition.”
