Despite the intense focus on House and Senate races in this year’s election, there is another set of races that could prove just as important in determining the country’s future political course.
Thirty-seven governors’ seats are up for election Nov. 2, and Republicans have an edge in those races in much the same way they are dominating congressional contests. Political analysts believe Republicans may capture 30 of the nation’s 50 governors mansions, six more than they now control.
The net outcome of the gubernatorial races could influence how much resistance the Obama administration faces from the states over initiatives like health care reform. They also will determine who controls the process of redrawing congressional districts in 2011 and who controls key battleground states during the 2012 presidential election.
“Especially in the short term, parties can get some mileage out of being in control” at the state level, said Indiana State University political science professor Carl Klarner, who predicts Tuesday’s elections will end with 32 Republican governors and 51 Republican-controlled legislative chambers.
A sweep that large would give Republicans an edge in redrawing 125 House seats next year, compared with 62 for Democrats, Klarner calculates.
Five gubernatorial races to watch:
¥Florida: Republican Rick Scott has the slightest edge in polling against Democratic opponent and state Treasurer Alex Sink, but the race is considered a tossup. Scott is a Tea Party candidate who vanquished the GOP establishment’s Bill McCollum in the primary. Scott attacked Sink for using costly state airplanes while Sink portrayed Scott as a corrupt former health care executive.
¥California: The race is considered competitive by many political analysts even though the former governor and current state attorney general, Democrat Jerry Brown, has for weeks held a slight lead over Republican Meg Whitman. Besides lagging behind Brown in name recognition, Whitman, the former eBay CEO, took a hit when her former housekeeper, an illegal immigrant, described life with Whitman as “a nightmare.”
¥Illinois: One of the closest gubernatorial races pits impeached Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s former lieutenant governor against a Tea Party favorite who wants to repeal Obama’s health care reforms. Democrat Patrick Quinn, who replaced Blagojevich as governor, is not only distancing himself from his disgraced predecessor but wrestling with the state’s $4 billion deficit and nearly 10 percent unemployment. He’s tied with Republican Bill Brady, a state senator trying to win over an electorate that typically swings Democratic.
¥Ohio: Gov. Ted Strickland, a Democrat, is running for re-election against former Rep. John Kasich, a Republican who helped balance the federal budget in 1997 when he chaired the House budget panel. Kasich holds a slight lead in most polls, but the race is considered a tossup and state political analysts believe the outcome will hinge on which party is better at getting out the vote, a factor that this year could favor Republicans.
¥Oregon: The races is a tossup between Republican Chris Dudley and Democrat John Kitzhaber. Dudley, a former professional basketball player, has a slight lead over Kitzhaber, the former state Senate president. Obama campaigned for Strickland, who is trying to preserve Democrats’ 24-year hold on the governor’s mansion.
