An anti-incumbent electorate is threatening to sweep Democrats out of the majority in the House this year, but Democrats are far more likely to retain control of the Senate or at least fight to a 50-50 draw with their Republican counterparts, political experts said.
A Republican takeover of the Senate is possible, those experts agree, but improbable.
“If this wave [of Republican gains] is huge it can happen, but it’s got to be huge,” said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Thirty-seven Senate seats area up for grabs Nov. 2, but many are already considered safe GOP or Democratic territory or are leaning toward one party or the other. The Senate majority will likely hinge on a handful of very tight races in California, Washington, Illinois, Nevada, West Virginia, Colorado and perhaps Connecticut.
Duffy said chances of a GOP Senate takeover are “somewhere between 10 and 15 percent” in part because getting to 51 seats would require Republicans to win in reliably Democratic states like Connecticut, California or Washington, where Democrats won the last election and current Democratic candidates are at least marginally ahead in the polls.
Republicans would have stood a better chance of taking over the Senate, Duffy said, if the party’s favored candidate in Delaware, Rep. Mike Castle, had not lost the primary to Tea Party favorite Christine O’Donnell. Castle was favored to beat Democrat Chris Coons, but O’Donnell continues to trail Coons.
Without Delaware, Duffy and other political analysts predict the GOP can pick up seven to nine Senate seats, short of the 10 needed to secure a majority. A nine-seat pickup would leave the Senate evenly divided for the first time in a decade. Under this scenario, tie votes would have to be decided by Democratic Vice President Biden, who presides over the Senate.
Several too-close-to-call races make it hard to predict where the Senate will end up.
The races in Nevada, Colorado, West Virginia and Illinois, for instance, are virtual dead heats, although the anti-incumbent wave could help push GOP candidates to victory.
In Connecticut, Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal has consistently led in the polls throughout the race against Republican opponent Linda McMahon, though recent polls suggest his advantage is shrinking.
In California, Republican Carly Fiorina has trailed Democratic incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer throughout October, but the latest polls show Boxer with a statistically insignificant 1-point lead.
State political analysts believe a Fiorina victory is unlikely, however, because her conservative campaign is failing to attract independent voters.
“Most people still believe Barbara Boxer is going to win because a Republican running away from the center and running a hard-core, traditional conservative campaign normally loses in California,” said Allan Hoffenblum, publisher of the California Target Book, an analysis of Golden State campaigns.
Still, Hoffenblum said, with Republicans more enthusiastic about the election than Democrats, an upset is possible.
“If there is going to be a change from past voter behavior,” Hoffenblum said, “it is going to be this year.”
