In a year when New York Democrats have fended off voter anger to dominate the races for governor and the Senate, the state’s congressional Democrats are facing much tougher times.
A third of the state’s 27 Democratically held House seats are being threatened by GOP challengers, according to pollsters and political analysts, and even Long Island Democrat Carolyn McCarthy is suddenly scrambling to stave off a credible opponent in a district she has securely held for seven terms.
With just two Republicans currently serving in the New York congressional delegation, the Nov. 2 election could dramatically shift the state’s representation in the House and signal a wider GOP takeover nationwide.
“Some of those New York seats could go Republican,” said pollster Ron Faucheux. “It’s really something for people to watch, because if you have some sizable Republican gains in New York, that could be an indication of big Republican gains nationwide.”
Republicans strategists believe up to six Democratic seats are realistically winnable for the GOP in the Empire State. Most political experts agree that the Republicans will pick up a few of the seats that flipped to the Democrats in 2008, when President Obama strengthened the ticket.
The nonpartisan Real Clear Politics Web site lists just one open New York seat as safely in Republican hands. Democrat Eric Massa won the 29th District seat in 2008 but resigned in March amid accusations that he sexually harassed some of his male employees. Democrats have put very little effort into retaining the empty seat and Republican Thomas Reed leads Democrat Matthew Zeller in the polls.
Race handicappers now believe seats held by Democratic Reps. John Hall and Bill Owens could switch to Republicans. Owens won the seat in this Republican-leaning district in a special election last year thanks in part to GOP infighting over their candidate. He is now in a tight race against GOP moderate Matt Doheny. Hall, elected in 2006 during a Democratic sweep, is now struggling to hold onto his seat amid voter anger directed at incumbents in a district that had traditionally voted Republican. Hall is tied in the polls with Tea Party-backed Republican Nan Hayworth,
Seats held by Democratic Reps. Tim Bishop, Mike McMahon, Scott Murphy and Dan Maffei are considered toss ups.
“If the wave is bigger than anyone expected, the pieces are in place for a larger expansion,” one Republican campaign official said, though he called winning McCarthy’s seat “a long shot.”
Some New York political experts believe Republicans are overconfident about taking upstate seats and that the GOP wave will amount to little more than a trickle in most districts.
“I just don’t see it happening in New York,” said Steven Schneider, a political science professor at the State University of New York Institute of Technology.
Syracuse University political science professor Grant Reeher said the GOP’s chances of picking up House seats have diminished since GOP gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino’s poll numbers slumped, weakening the GOP ticket. Paladino trails state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo by about 25 points.
“You had this long-standing frustration with state politics among voters in New York, and Paladino was tapping into that,” Reeher said. “But because his campaign has stumbled so badly, you are disarming that potential source of a push against Democrats. For Republicans, that’s an opportunity lost.”
