The Republican Party faces a watershed moment, as Donald Trump virtually locked up the GOP nomination this week.
Pundits are quick to throw around the term “circular firing squad,” but that’s not a wholly accurate depiction of the fighting factions. It may have been a circular firing squad when there were 17 Republican candidates in the primary race. Everybody had to fight against everybody else. They flung barbs across the debate stage.
These days, the Republican landscape looks less like a circle and more like two sides: one chasing the other, begging it to unite behind Donald Trump, and the other unwilling to back Trump for any number of the following reasons:
- Trump’s character, called into question by his incendiary comments about minorities and women.
- Trump’s history as a donor to Hillary Clinton, and changes in policy positions on healthcare and H1-B visas, among others.
- Trump’s lack of experience in public office, combined with the multiple bankruptcies and business failures (Trump University, anyone?) that speckle his career.
Not all of the non-endorsers are part of the #NeverTrump movement — some aren’t saying #NeverTrump, they’re just not saying much of anything.
Former Presidents George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush have both thus far declined to endorse any candidate in the race — not even the only GOP candidate left in the running, who would, in any normal election cycle, be the easy and obvious choice.
The Bushes are far from alone in this. Of all the living Republican presidential nominees, only one — Bob Dole — is planning to attend the convention in Cleveland. Both members of the 2012 GOP ticket have taken a stronger stance, with Mitt Romney’s press conference slamming Trump in early March, and Paul Ryan’s interview yesterday saying, “We need a standard bearer who bears our standards.”
Depending on who you ask, this tepid support for the GOP nominee is either a sign of Trump’s incompetence as a leader, or proof that Trump is the anti-establishment candidate voters have been waiting for. It remains to be seen if, or how, young people (who generally do not identify with either political party) will be influenced by party leaders.
Some of those party leaders are lining up behind Trump, including Governor Scott Walker and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. RNC Chairman Reince Priebus has led the charge for unity.
So, how do millennials split along the Trump fault line? According to a Harvard poll, a strong majority (61%) back Clinton, with only 25% backing Trump. A slim 14% are undecided. That 14% — especially the portion who reside in key swing states — will be crucial for Trump to persuade.
The pro-Trump faction contends that those who oppose Trump (or hesitate to vote for him) would effectively guarantee a President Hillary Clinton. If people only ever voted for candidates who think exactly like they do, there would be painfully few votes cast in each election.
Still, Trump is a tough sell to many conservatives: He has only a 59% approval rating among those who lean right (for reference, Mitt Romney had 87% approval among this group in May of 2012).
Donald Trump has a long way to go before he is a serious electoral threat to Hillary Clinton. He could start by reaching out to the 14% of undecided millennials, and making a sincere effort to win them over.
