It seems more doubtful than ever that Major League Baseball can stick with the status quo for its annual amateur draft when the next collective-bargaining agreement is hammered out between players and owners after the 2011 season.
As of Thursday afternoon, just 13 of the 32 first-round selections from June’s draft have signed contracts with their teams. That’s an entire summer of development time wasted. Even if all 19 unsigned picks come to terms with their clubs by the Aug. 17 deadline, those players would have just a little more than two weeks before the minor-league seasons end.
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That list includes Nationals’ top pick Stephen Strasburg, the No. 1 overall selection from San Diego State. Given the bonus demands of his advisor, Scott Boras, no one expected him to sign quickly. It is the sheer number of unsigned players, however, that is causing queasiness throughout the sport. Small-market teams, especially, rely on the draft to get their share of elite talent. But if top amateur players continue to slide because of high-contract demands — or simply refuse to sign and re-enter the draft the following year — then the advantage shifts toward big-market clubs, who can afford the larger bonuses.
“The draft in baseball is not a situation where they can trade draft picks,” said Boras, who advises the top three picks and six first-round selections overall. “So where a player is taken rarely defines his talent.”
That trade embargo would change — at least if some on the business side had their way. Then if the Nats really thought they couldn’t sign Strasburg, they could play other teams off each other and see how much his negotiating rights were really worth. Owners may also attempt to cap the money draft picks can get — as they do in the NFL, NBA and NHL. But they will have to pry such concessions out of the Players Association.
“Because the draft was unilaterally imposed in 1965 — it was not collectively bargained — therefore there are no barometers in the draft that give you an indication of a player’s value,” Boras said. “The only indications you have of a player’s worth is what teams do outside the draft [process].”
