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DID YOU KNOW …
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No. 2 San Diego State can’t hit its free throws
Give the Aztecs (32-2) credit for their brilliant season — two losses to BYU are the only games separating them from perfection. But things tighten up in the NCAA tournament, and you need to do certain things correctly to win. Making free throws, for instance, is one of them. Unfortunately, San Diego State isn’t very good in that department. The Aztecs make just 69.8 percent from the charity stripe, 152nd in the nation. That’s not good for a club that can’t make 3-pointers either (34.4 percent). Red flags are up.
KEY FIRST-ROUND MATCHUP
No. 8 Michigan vs. No. 9 Tennessee
Tempo could be the key in this contrast of styles between Big Ten and SEC foes. Michigan (20-13) has some big guards who can score. But the Wolverines average just 66.1 points a game and are ranked 300th in the nation in rebounding (32 rpg). Tennessee (19-14) would prefer to get the game out in the open court. But the Volunteers don’t even do that as well as they have in recent years. Bruce Pearl’s Volunteers also have lost seven of their last 11 games entering the NCAA tournament, a disturbing late-season swoon.
THE FAVORITE
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils
A year ago the Blue Devils were considered the most vulnerable No. 1 seed and what happened? They won the national championship. Yes, Duke is dependent on the 3-pointer but not as much as last year. Yes, it lacks athleticism in the frontcourt, but isn’t that the tradeoff when you stand 6-foot-10, 6-10 and 6-8 with 6-11 in reserve? You want to bet against coach Mike Krzyzewski and two senior All-Americans (Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler)? Go ahead.
THE CONTENDER
No. 4 Texas Longhorns
It looked like the Longhorns (27-7) were the best team in the country in January and early February. Road losses to Nebraska and Colorado and a home defeat at the hands of Kansas State took away some of that luster. But this is a dangerous No. 4 seed with wins over Kansas and North Carolina on the road. The offense runs through swingman Jordan Hamilton (18.6 ppg).
ONE AND DONE
No. 6 Cincinnati Bearcats
The Bearcats won their first 15 games of the year. They played exactly one NCAA tournament team during that stretch. The Bearcats won six of their final eight games. They beat only two NCAA tournament teams during that stretch. Like center Yancy Gates (11.8 ppg, 6.8 rpg), they’ve got potential. But peel back the layers, and fortitude in a charged environment is much harder to find.
CINDERELLA
No. 14 Bucknell Bison
American was a popular Cinderella choice two years ago. So why not take a flyer on the team that beat AU twice this season? Bucknell has a skilled big man in 6-foot-11 sophomore Mike Muscala, a beastly defensive stopper in Bryan Cohen and enough quickness and experience in the backcourt to pull off a first-round shocker, especially against a Connecticut team that could very well be out of gas after a thrilling run to the Big East title.
THE EXAMINER PREDICTS …
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils
A blowout loss to St. John’s at Madison Square Garden in January left a cloud over the Blue Devils (30-4). Could an NCAA favorite really lose like that and be considered legitimate? But Duke’s losses were all in hostile arenas. And they have arguably the easiest path of any No. 1 seed (again). A resurgent Kyle Singler and a championship pedigree make the Blue Devils the team to beat.
