It happens every spring. The pundits weigh in with their picks for the major league baseball season, and by the end of the month we all will be wondering how they missed on a handful of surprise teams. Not every club that gets off to a hot start will still be around in June, let alone find itself in a playoff race. But with two extra postseason spots available, a mid-level team can bump its win total by just a handful of games and suddenly find itself playing for more. Detroit went from 81 wins to 95 last season. Milwaukee went from 77 to 96.
So who are 2012’s candidates? In the National League East, the renamed Miami Marlins dropped to last place with 72 wins. With the Phillies, the resurgent Nationals and the consistent Braves, the division will be rough. Ace Josh Johnson, healthy after shoulder surgery, might be a bigger addition than either free agent shortstop Jose Reyes or lefty Mark Buehrle.
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“The Phillies are definitely vulnerable,” ESPN baseball analyst Orel Hershiser said. “The Marlins can pitch right with them, and they’ve got a lot of exciting players. And [third baseman] Hanley Ramirez looks poised to have a huge year, even an MVP-type year.”
Most of the talk in the AL East is about Tampa Bay again pushing the Yankees and Red Sox. But look out for Toronto, which has been stuck between 75 and 87 wins for seven years. Can the Jays make the leap? Their lineup again should be excellent. Only five teams scored more runs in 2011. But their fate rests with a revamped bullpen and a rotation that needs Brett Cecil and Henderson Alvarez to step forward. There’s a reason in the midst of a Maple Leafs meltdown at Air Canada Centre last week that fans started chanting “Let’s go Jays!”
Kansas City won 71 games last season and is loaded with young talent. It’s hard to see the Royals jumping Detroit, but the rest of the AL Central is in flux. A left-handed heavy rotation has some holes, but rising stars Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas anchor a promising lineup.
– Brian McNally
