It’s May 19, and thus way too early to talk pennant race. No one secures a playoff spot this early in the season. Speculating on the outlook of a team after 40 games is just plain stupid.
Naturally, we’ll do it anyway, because we feel particularly strong about a certain underachieving team in the American League East. Remember the one that plays in the park with a big green wall? The one with 37,000 fans named “Sully”? Yeah, that one.
The Red Sox are playing .500 ball as the season creeps past the quarter pole. Entering play Tuesday, they were 8 1/2 games out of first place and 6 1/2 out in the wild card. Their new team philosophy, emphasizing run prevention — i.e. good pitching and defense — has them buried in fourth place in the division, behind the Rays, Yankees and Blue Jays. The latest disheartening moment involved a poor start from Daisuke Matsuzaka, a roaring comeback to take the lead and then a ninth-inning meltdown from closer Jonathan Papelbon.
This is not to say the Red Sox are dead. But the roster suddenly has a lot of baggage — a combination of age, contracts and lack of production. For the second consecutive season, David Ortiz is hitting 50 points below his career average. Mike Lowell no longer is an everyday player. Matsuzaka is allergic to the strike zone. Even Papelbon is missing that high-90s heater that defined him from 2006-09.
It’s bad baseball, not philosophy, that has hurt Boston. The starting pitching simply has not been as good as New York’s or Tampa’s. Injuries to Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury have hurt the Red Sox defensively. We’re confident they have a run in them, but it might not be enough. Each of the last five AL wild card winners have won either 94 or 95 games. To reach that number, Boston must play 75-47 ball the rest of the way — and hope someone in front of them stumbles. For a team that plays its next eight games against the Twins, Phillies and Rays, the window of opportunity is about to be slammed shut.
