Unless he goes on an absolute tear — mind you, it could happen — Stephen Strasburg, despite all the hype and strikeouts, will not win the NL Rookie of the Year award.
Strasburg has given the Nationals everything they could have hoped for through his first 11 starts. But he’s closing fast on his 160-inning barrier, and a 5-3 record in mid-August won’t cut it. There simply are too many players who have proved themselves the entire season (Jaime Garcia) or who have made a bigger splash in the playoff race since being called up (Buster Posey) for Strasburg to win.
Recommended Stories
The Nationals and Strasburg, by the way, are fine with this. The 100 innings he’ll throw in the majors this season are invaluable to his development. A hardware-hungry fan might beg to differ, but in promoting Strasburg to the majors in June — and thereby hurting his chances at winning the ROY award — the Nats have given him something better: the gift of a sneak peak before the real show begins in 2011.
The San Francisco Giants and Oakland A’s employed similar tactics with Tim Lincecum and Tim Hudson, respectively, during their rookie seasons. Lincecum threw 146 innings as a rookie, went 7-5 and wasn’t a factor in the ROY race. He won the Cy Young the next season. Hudson was 11-2 in 136 innings in 1999 and finished fifth in the AL rookie running. He won 20 games the following year. The Nats undoubtedly would be thrilled if Strasburg followed a similar path.
Many rookies who began the season in the majors are beginning to hit the wall. Mike Leake’s ERA in August is an unsightly 5.52. Jason Heyward has hit just two home runs since the end of May. Meanwhile, the Nationals are banking that because of their careful planning, Strasburg will continue to throw well until the club shuts him down for good in mid-September. This has been the idea all along: Get the phenom his 100 innings in the majors this season and then watch him dominate in 2011. At this point, there’s no argument against that logic.
