2010 Baseball preview

2010 Baseball preview

Published April 4, 2010 4:00am ET



MLB’s offseason trend is defensive

Yankees, Red Sox make moves to prevent runs

Last baseball season, Yankee Stadium — the shiny new ballpark in the Bronx — replaced its legendary predecessor. Almost seven months after opening, the place hosted an iconic moment of its own when New York won its 27th World Series title.

Now the question for the 2010 season, which begins with a Yankees-Red Sox tilt in Boston Sunday night: Can anyone dethrone New York? The Yankees made a concerted effort to improve their defense over the winter at limited cost to a powerful lineup. They also added pitcher Javier Vazquez in a trade with Atlanta. He sputtered in a previous stint in New York, but dominated in the National League last season. Few teams can match that starting pitching depth.

Of course, if anyone can it is their American League East rival. Boston general manager Theo Epstein also made defense a focus of this offseason. It is a trend that threatens to take the sport back to its roots — before performance-enhancing drugs fueled a power boom that lasted more than a decade.

“As we get into the defensive analysis of baseball teams and as we get into the computer chips and how much those extra outs help pitching staffs it’s just going to continue to change the game,” said ESPN baseball analyst Orel Hershiser.

FIVE QUESTIONS1. Can the Orioles compete in the AL East?Baltimore last posted a winning season in 1997 and the American League East is a diabolical place to conduct a proper rebuild. The Orioles are making progress with young stars Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Matt Wieters. It is the pitching, though, that will see them through. Lefthander Brian Matusz has a legitimate shot at rookie of the year and leads a batch of promising starters.2. Is Roy Halladay the missing piece for the Phillies?Wasn’t that supposed to be Cliff Lee? Philadelphia acquired Lee last summer and he pitched brilliantly, leading them to a second straight National League pennant. They then gave up some nice prospects for Halladay and flipped Lee to Seattle. Couldn’t they have just kept those pieces since Lee is almost as good? The Phillies rolled the dice anyway and they hope it pushes them back to the top. 3. Are the Mets in trouble — for real?Injuries were a legitimate excuse for New York’s 2009 collapse. But did they just mask a rotting foundation? The Mets hope with good health they can challenge the Phillies again for a National League East title. And they did add a big bat in outfielder Jason Bay. But New York did little to bolster its rotation and shortstop Jose Reyes has battled thyroid problems this spring. 4. Why would the Padres trade Adrian Gonzalez? Get rid of a hometown star who has averaged 35 home runs and 106 RBI the last three years and is still just 27? Are they crazy? No, just rebuilding. And when a player can leave after the 2011 season, a team has to look to the future. A contract around Mark Teixeira’s eight-year, $180 million deal is possible, just not with San Diego.5. Are there any more small-market contenders?The Twins have thrived without spending big cash and have a new stadium to help retain their own major league stars. But other than Oakland, fellow cash-strapped contenders are rare. How about the Reds? Cincinnati has a modern stadium, signed prized Cuban pitcher Aroldis Chapman this winter and has a host of other top prospects either on the major league roster or coming soon

The Red Sox added third baseman Adrian Beltre — a standout defensive player — and signed speedy centerfielder Mike Cameron. Add in ace pitcher John Lackey, a free agent from the Los Angeles Angels, and you have a dominant pitching staff with plenty of support behind it.

Whether Boston can score enough runs is an open question. Both the Red Sox and Yankees have to fend off each other — and the supremely talented Tampa Bay Rays. Boasting a World Series appearance in 2008 and one of the game’s best farm systems, Tampa Bay could knock one of those powerhouses out of the playoff picture completely.

Again the balance of power resides in the American League. The AL West has four solid teams in Texas, Seattle, Oakland and the three-time defending champion Angels.

Seattle is another team that focused extensively on run prevention in the offseason, trading for former Cy Young winner Cliff Lee. The Mariners starting duo of Lee and Felix Hernandez is as good as any tandem in the game.

But just because the National League has fewer outstanding teams doesn’t mean the Philadelphia Phillies can’t win the World Series as they did in 2008. Their return trip was spoiled by the Yankees last October.

The St. Louis Cardinals have to worry about signing star first baseman Albert Pujols to a new contract before he becomes a free agent at the end of the season. But if they can navigate that distraction, the Cardinals have the talent to win a National League pennant. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Twins already secured their future by signing star catcher Joe Mauer to a eight-year contract extension. The small-market Twins now join the ranks of the middle class with their gleaming new downtown stadium, Target Field.

bmcnally@washingtonexaminer.com

 

AMERICAN LEAGUE NATIONAL LEAGUE

Baltimore Orioles
2009 record » 64-98
Manager » Dave Trembley, 4th year
Prediction » 5th place, AL East
A young nucleus is in place with more talent on the way. But is that enough to lift the Orioles out of fifth place after two years in the basement? Their last AL East title was in 1997.

Boston Red Sox
2009 record »
95-67
Manager » Terry Francona, 7th year
Prediction » AL wild card
The addition of John Lackey gives Boston a formidable starting rotation. The bullpen was excellent last season. The front office even made defensive upgrades a priority. If their offense is even half-decent, this is a playoff team.

Chicago White Sox
2009 record »
79-83
Manager » Ozzie Guillen, 7th year
Prediction » 3rd place, AL Central
They failed to defend their division crown. But some aggressive trades by GM Ken Williams last summer gave the White Sox the division’s best rotation — led by Jake Peavy, acquired from San Diego, and Mark Buehrle.

Cleveland Indians
2009 record » 65-97
Manager » Manny Acta, 1st year
Prediction » 4th place, AL Central
Acta knows about rebuilding after three years with the Nats. But he’s inheriting a team with a far deeper farm system. Look out for a monster year from now-healthy CF Grady Sizemore.

Detroit Tigers
2009 record »
86-77
Manager » Jim Leyland, 5th year
Prediction » 2nd place, AL Central
They led the division from May 16 until a heartbreaking one-game playoff loss to the Twins on Oct. 6. The Tigers have great promise in the rotation. But without CF Curtis Granderson and 2B Placido Polanco, will the Tigers score enough?

Kansas City Royals
2009 record »
65-97
Manager » Trey Hillman, 3rd year
Prediction » 4th place, AL Central
The Royals have escaped the division basement two years running now. But is there really any hope they can climb higher? If there is, it rests on the arm of 2009 Cy Young winner Zack Greinke.

Los Angeles Angels
2009 record »
97-65
Manager » Mike Scioscia, 11th year
Prediction » AL West champions
Three AL West titles in a row and five of six. But can the Angels hold on in an improving division and after losing ace pitcher John Lackey and the versatile Chone Figgins to free agency?

Minnesota Twins
2009 record » 87-76
Manager » Ron Gardenhire, 9th year
Prediction » AL Central champions
The most important part is done: Signing star C Joe Mauer to a contract extension. The Twins also open up a new outdoor stadium, Target Field. Now, can they replace closer Joe Nathan (Tommy John surgery)?

New York Yankees
2009 record » 103-59
Manager » Joe Girardi, 3rd year
Prediction » AL East champions, AL pennant,
World Series champions
The defending champs traded for Javier Vazquez to solidify a dynamite rotation. No one else scored over 900 runs last season and the heart of that lineup remained stable. Curtis Granderson and Brett Gardner form a better defensive outfield.

Oakland Athletics
2009 record »
75-87
Manager » Bob Geren, 4th year
Prediction » 4th place, AL West
One of the best farm systems in baseball needs to produce for the A’s to get back to their winning ways. They took a chance on veteran pitcher Ben Sheets, who missed last year after elbow surgery.

Seattle Mariners
2009 record » 85-77
Manager » Don Wakamatsu, 2nd year
Prediction » 3rd place, AL West
Few teams in the majors emphasize pitching and defense like the Mariners, who acquired 2008 Cy Young winner Cliff Lee in the Roy Halladay deal. Lee teams with Felix Hernandez to give Seattle a dominant one-two punch.

Tampa Bay Rays
2009 record » 84-78
Manager » Joe Maddon, 5th year
Prediction » 3rd place, AL East
Took a step back after 2008 AL pennant. But don’t be fooled. Third baseman Evan Longoria is an MVP candidate and Rays are again loaded with young talent. If the bullpen issues are fixed, this team will challenge.

Texas Rangers
2009 record »
87-75
Manager » Ron Washington, 4th year
Prediction » 2nd place, AL West
They just missed the playoffs last year with a young, talent-rich roster and plenty more on the way from a rich farm system. Will Washington’s admission of drug use this spring distract the kids? His job is on the line.

Toronto Blue Jays
2009 record »
75-87
Manager » Cito Gaston, 3rd year
Prediction » 4th place, AL East
It looks like the Blue Jays are headed for a rebuild. That’s not easy in the AL East. Ace pitcher Roy Halladay is gone so the rotation has limited experience. They need a rebound season from CF Vernon Wells.

Arizona Diamondbacks
2009 record »
70-92
Manager » A.J. Hinch, 2nd year
Prediction » 5th place, NL West
The rotation looks good, especially if ace Brandon Webb returns from shoulder surgery by June. Star OF Justin Upton anchors a lineup with some question marks. Mark Johnson had 44 HR at 3B.   

Atlanta Braves
2009 record »
86-76
Manager » Bobby Cox, 20 years
Prediction » 3rd place, NL East
Top prospect Jason Heyward gets nod in RF. Braves hope he can upgrade the offense. They need a big year from Derek Lowe and Tommy Hanson as rotation replaces Javier Vazquez.

Chicago Cubs
2009 record » 83-78
Manager » Lou Piniella, 4th year
Prediction » 2nd place, NL Central
Did the Cubs do enough to catch the Cardinals in the NL Central? Doesn’t look like it. Alfonso Soriano’s knees hurt him last season. A rebound year from C Geovany Soto would be nice.

Cincinnati Reds
2009 record »
78-84
Manager » Dusty Baker, 3rd year
Prediction » 4th place, NL Central
The Reds have a good nucleus with 1B Joey Votto and OF Jay Bruce, who fought a nagging wrist injury in ’09. The pitching staff is a solid mix of vets like Aaron Harang and youngsters like Homer Bailey.

Colorado Rockies
2009 record »
92-70
Manager » Jim Tracy, 2nd year
Prediction » NL wild card
Favorites in the NL West are seeking their third postseason berth in four years. RHP Ubaldo Jimenez has stuff to make a run at a Cy Young. Troy Tulowitzki is one of MLB’s best SS at just 25.

Florida Marlins
2009 record »
87-75
Manager » Fredi Gonzalez, 4th year
Prediction » 2nd place, NL East
Two solid years in a row, a new ballpark on the way and an MVP candidate in SS Hanley Ramirez. And they signed RHP Josh Johnson to a four-year extension. The future looks bright.

Houston Astros
2009 record »
74-88
Manager » Brad Mills, 1st year
Prediction » 5th place, NL Central
Looks like rebuilding time in Houston under new manager Brad Mills. Star 1B Lance Berkman is already on the DL. They have a nice top of the rotation with Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez.

Los Angeles Dodgers
2009 record »
95-67
Manager » Joe Torre, 3rd year
Prediction » NL West champions
Did the nasty divorce of owner Frank McCourt make the Dodgers cautious financially? No big moves, but the offense is still competitive. At 22, LHP Clayton Kershaw is already one of MLB’s best.

Milwaukee Brewers
2009 record » 80-82
Manager » Ken Macha, 2nd year
Prediction » 3rd place, NL Central
They paid for losing so much pitching after ’08. Offense led by Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun is powerful. They tried to patch their rotation with Randy Wolf and Doug Davis.

New York Mets
2009 record »
70-92
Manager » Jerry Manuel, 3rd year
Prediction » 4th place, NL East
Injuries ruined ’09. They added OF Jason Bay to bolster lineup. 3B David Wright hopes to take advantage of new dimensions at Citi Field. But no rotation additions puts pressure on Johan Santana.

Philadelphia Phillies
2009 record » 93-69
Manager » Charlie Manuel, 6th year
Prediction » NL East champions, NL pennant
Second straight pennant. Can they do it again? Traded one ace for another in Cliff Lee for Roy Halladay deal. Back of rotation looks thin. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard still anchor potent lineup.

Pittsburgh Pirates
2009 record »
62-99
Manager » John Russell, 3rd year
Prediction » 6th place, NL Central
Long rebuilding process continues. Not much hope, other than watching CF Andrew McCutchen blossom. The rotation lacks an ace or even a solid No. 2. OF Garrett Jones had surprise ’09 (21 HR).  

St. Louis Cardinals
2009 record »
91-71
Manager » Tony LaRussa, 15th year
Prediction » NL Central champions
Overwhelming favorite in the NL Central. Had to re-sign Matt Holliday, who again provides protection for star 1B Albert Pujols. Pitchers Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter are dominant.

San Francisco Giants
2009 record »
88-74
Manager » Bruce Bochy, 4th year
Prediction » 3rd place, NL West
Still have to wonder how this team will score runs. Will Giants even let phenom Buster Posey loose at catcher? Looks like he starts in Triple-A. Strength is rotation led by Tim Lincecum.

San Diego Padres
2009 record » 75-87
Manager » Bud Black, 4th year
Prediction » 4th place, NL West
Rebuilding time in San Diego, which looks like a lock for last place. The only real drama is if Padres trade hometown star Adrian Gonzalez, one of the game’s best 1B this side of Albert Pujols.

Washington Nationals
2009 record »
59-103
Manager » Jim Riggleman, 2nd year
Prediction » 5th place, NL East
Four last place finishes in five years. Time for Nats to generate some buzz. Top draft pick Stephen Strasburg will be up by June. Ryan Zimmerman looks for repeat of ’09.