Key matchup » Georgetown guard Chris Wright (13.1 ppg, 5.4 apg) vs. VCU guard Joey Rodriguez (10.5 ppg, 4.8 apg). Rodriguez is a heady passer and clutch shooter. Wright does whatever the Hoyas need: shooting, distributing or defense. But it’s hard to know whether he’ll be able to do anything at 100 percent coming off a broken left hand.

How Georgetown can win » Establish a defensive perimeter and stay composed late. The Hoyas are defined by their read-and-react offense, but locking in defensively against a streaky VCU squad that doesn’t score efficiently will keep the Hoyas close even if their own outside shots don’t fall.

How VCU can win » Scrap, then scrap some more. The Rams’ hard-fought rebounds down the stretch were the difference in their first-round win over USC on Wednesday. With pressure defense and transition shot making, VCU needs to play at the high tempo it prefers and force the Hoyas to keep up.

Player to watch » Georgetown forward Julian Vaughn (8.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg) suffered a huge drop-off during Wright’s absence — he hasn’t scored from the field since Wright was injured Feb. 23. Vaughn needs to find his game and handle VCU forward Jamie Skeen (15.4 ppg, 7.5 rpg), a force in the paint who also can drift outside.

X-Factor » It’s been weeks since Georgetown has had the upper hand in any contest. If it simply has forgotten how to win, VCU won’t hesitate to pounce. But if Wright is healthy and at his best, the Hoyas will be as confident and able as any team in the country.

Examiner predicts » Georgetown 78, VCU 74

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