For Strasburg, Nationals, the future is a crapshoot
The Nationals agreed to pay $15.1 million over the next four years and in return acquired an amateur pitcher many baseball scouts see as a once-in-a-generation player.
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Stephen Strasburg can throw 100 mph. He has a devastating curveball that leaves batters flailing. He is tall — 6-foot-4 — and strong, with a work ethic that in three years whittled a pudgy teenager who could barely run sprints into a young man who can still throw in the high 90’s deep into games.
That’s the legend of Strasburg, who signed his first pro contract with the Nats just 77 seconds before the team would have lost his rights Monday night. Now, here is the reality: Strasburg is a can’t-miss kid in a sport filled with phenoms who did just that.
The names resonate through the ages. Mark Prior. Brien Taylor. Ben McDonald. David Clyde. All at one time were labeled future stars. But each provides a specific cautionary tale for fans ready to spring for season tickets. None of those pitchers came close to lasting success in the big leagues. Their stories show the pitfalls that Strasburg and the Nationals must avoid if he wants to become an exception.
“The sad story is most of these guys should have been pitching into their late 30s or early 40s, but were burned out too quick,” MASN analyst Rob Dibble told radio station 106.7 The Fan on Tuesday. “You want this kid to be ready to pitch in the major leagues and help the Nats win a championship … But I’ve listened and laughed my butt off at so many people who never played baseball say [Strasburg] is ready to pitch in the major leagues.”
There is plenty of evidence to back up Dibble’s claims. Some pitchers aren’t mentally ready to handle big-league hitters. Clyde was drafted No. 1 overall by the Texas Rangers in 1973 at age 18. Within months, the Rangers had him in the majors — partly so a bad team could get an attendance bump. He was out of baseball by 1979.
Strasburg, 21, is older and appears physically ready. But Washington’s front office wants no part of a September call-up just to appease fans. According to team president Stan Kasten, Strasburg likely will begin a throwing program to prepare for the team’s instructional league camp in Florida in September. It is possible Strasburg won’t arrive in Washington until well into the 2010 season and may be limited to 150 innings.
That caution is understandable. But some things are beyond a team’s control. McDonald and Taylor — ironically both clients of Scott Boras, the famed agent who also negotiated Strasburg’s record contract — never reached their full potential. McDonald was the No. 1 overall pick in 1989 by the Baltimore Orioles, but battled nagging injuries and inconsistency in a nine-year career.
Taylor’s story might be saddest of all because he never even made it to the show. Chosen first in 1991 by the New York Yankees and on his way to stardom with two strong seasons in the minors, Taylor tore the labrum in his pitching shoulder during a 1993 offseason fight and was never the same.
Similar traps lurk everywhere for Strasburg and the Nationals, who have bet $15.1 million that he can somehow avoid them all.
