The low seed will spring the upset and people will be shocked, sort of. And they shouldn’t be. A No. 12 seed has won 34 percent of the time; a No. 13 pulls the upset nearly a quarter of the time.
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But good luck figuring out which of those seeds will perform the trick. All that’s at stake is, perhaps, much of your bracket.
Among the intriguing high-seed vs. low-seed matchups:
No. 13 Belmont vs. No. 4 Wisconsin » Belmont lost two close games at Tennessee, including one by a point. They have two excellent 3-point shooters in Ian Clark and Jordan Campbell. They have depth, play fast and force 19.2 turnovers per game. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is 10-8 on the road or at neutral sites, though it did win at Marquette. Point guard Jordan Taylor
is outstanding, but they can struggle to score for long stretches and if they don’t control the tempo, good night.
No. 12 Utah State vs. No. 5 Kansas State » Utah State is an unlikely 12th seed, considering it is ranked 19th by the Associated Press and has an RPI of 15. They’ve made three straight NCAA tournaments and their top seven players consist of five seniors and two juniors. The streaky Wildcats have won eight of their last 10, including wins over Kansas and Texas. But if guard Jacob Pullen has a bad game, they’re in trouble.
No. 12 Richmond vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt » Beware the senior guard, which Richmond has in Kevin Anderson, who averages 16 points a game. But the stud is 6-foot-10 senior forward Justin Harper, who is already drawing attention from the NBA. Richmond must exploit Vandy’s rebounding weakness, but that isn’t a Spiders’ strength. Their 2-3 matchup zone could be an issue, however.
No. 11 Gonzaga vs. No. 6 St. John’s » With leading rebounder, and defensive standout, D.J. Kennedy sidelined with a torn ACL, St. John’s is vulnerable. Though the Red Storm plays in the tougher conference, they’re in the tourney for the first time since 2002 and facing a team that has made it 13 straight years.
